Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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133 FXUS64 KOHX 131725 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Warming up nicely this late morning. Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to near 90. Dewpoints are still holding in the 60s for many areas. This trend should continue through Sunday as the low level flow remains generally land locked. Short term mods do indicate some isolated convective development across our south both this afternoon and again on Sunday. 18Z cap erosion is indicated with some isolated pockets of late afternoon lift. Coverage however looks like <= 10% so no official pop inclusion at this time. Otw, some isolated patchy fog possible for the upcoming overnights. Tover values should remain positive for the most part, however. The bigger story will be the heat. Yesterday`s high at BNA was 96F and it appears that each of the next few afternoons will be getting slightly warmer. As mentioned prior, the influx of added humidity should hold off until Monday at the earliest. So we should be able to tack on a few added degrees to our highs till then. Looking closely at Euro/GFS 850 mb temp progs, we should see an increase of 3C-3.5C by Monday at that level. This attests to the expected slow warmup toward the century mark at BNA. Officially, the grids for surface temps will include 99F on Sunday and 100F on Monday. The return of some added humidity could put us into heat advisory terrain for Monday and Tuesday. Note that thermal w-e ridging becomes more pronounced just to our north by that time. So, plenty of heat upcoming. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 For the extended forecast, we are going to transition into a more active pattern. That will certainly be some welcomed news for many. Not really seeing any flood threat or severe potential. Although with a frontal passage expected Wednesday night, perhaps 1 or two stronger storms could emerge in the afternoon. The spc convective outlooks, for now, look to be free of any severe potential. So the boundary will push just to our south with considerable pops remaining into Thursday. Trough development to our west will keep us rather moist with convection chances continuing through Saturday as well. Thus, look for pops each and every day through the period. Otw, the tropics continue to look as clean as a whistle. As for the extended temps, they look to be much more tolerable. With the added clouds and precip chances, after the pre frontal lower 90s on Wednesday, we will then see mid to upper 80s for highs. Overnight lows will also improve and will dip into the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 TCU noted on obs and diurnal cu visible on satellite imagery, with HRRR keeping pop-up shower activity south of the TAF sites this afternoon. Will have to watch for possible showers at BNA and MQY, but any impacts will be short-lived and minimal. Some light fog again at SRB, with calm to light winds everywhere. Winds become more westerly late in the TAF period, but will remain around 5kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 99 75 100 / 0 10 0 10 Clarksville 71 95 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 67 91 68 94 / 0 10 0 10 Columbia 71 99 72 100 / 0 10 0 10 Cookeville 69 92 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 Jamestown 67 91 69 94 / 0 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 71 96 72 98 / 0 10 0 10 Murfreesboro 71 99 72 101 / 0 10 0 10 Waverly 71 96 73 98 / 10 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....05