003
FXUS64 KOHX 151124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

There`s a few clouds out there at forecast time, but it`s another
quiet morning across Middle TN. A few spots of fog will be possible
near bodies of water as we approach sunrise, but patchy at best. I`m
running the risk of sounding like a broken record, but the forecast
has been pretty consistent over the last several days. Hot and humid
conditions will continue for at least two more days, along with
small rain chances. Of course, those who do see rain today and
tomorrow (mainly south of I-40) will run the risk of gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. The question then becomes,
how hot will we get today and tomorrow? We reached 100 at BNA
yesterday as dew points at the airport mixed out to 65 degrees
(with a lot of other spots in the area remaining in the upper 60s
to around 70). If that happens again today and tomorrow, we could
very well reach 100 each of the next two days. 99 or 100? It`s
still stinkin` hot. As far as Heat Index values, we`ll be close to
Heat Advisory criteria (105+ degrees) today and tomorrow. A few
spots will probably get there, but low triple digits west of the
Cumberland Plateau may be more of the rule than the exception. Dew
points are the issue and most spots are mixing out enough to keep
those feels-like temperatures below threshold criteria.

A little climo for ya: the last time we reached 100 two days in a
row (at BNA) was just last year on August 24 and 25. If we get there
today and tomorrow, that would be 3 days in a row. The last time we
did that, we did it twice in one year: July and August 1990. Of
course, the next logical question is what`s the longest streak of
100+ days? The last 8 days of June in 1952 did it. That won`t happen
this year because rain is coming Wednesday!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Yes, widespread rains are expected to move into the region on
Wednesday afternoon and this is starting to look like the beginning
of a fairly active period of weather for the mid-state. Models
continue to show the boundary associated with Wednesday`s activity
getting hung up just south of us and leaving increased PoPs in place
for Middle TN through next weekend and into the start of next week
as multiple waves traverse the boundary. This will be a welcomed
change as drought conditions have started ticking up over the last
few weeks. Plus, it`ll curtail these grossly hot temperatures we`ve
seen the last few days. However, we`ll need to watch the rainfall
totals over this stretch of days. Current WPC guidance suggests 2 to
3 inches basinal rainfall averages starting Wednesday through the
start of next week. However, looking at ensembles, our southern
counties have at least a 20% chance of seeing 4+ inches in that same
time frame. Lots to work out over the next several days as rainfall
totals will hinge heavily on how far south this boundary pushes. As
far as the strength of storms specifically on Wednesday, forecast
soundings are healthy, as one would expect in the summer, however
both bulk shear and helicity values are greatly lacking. That said,
decent lapse rates (~6.5 deg/km) and plenty of CAPE would alone
suggest at least an isolated damaging wind threat Wednesday
afternoon/evening before soundings become completely saturated. This
should negate any severe weather through the remainder of this
active period, leaving us to focus on how much rain we end up
getting.

For those headed to the beach or the Caribbean over the next week,
the tropics look pretty quiet with typical afternoon thunderstorm
patterns and no organized activity any time soon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions continue today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon near CSV. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high clouds will be
around for most of the day. Winds will be out of the SSW between
5-8 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  77  99  78 /  20  10  10  30
Clarksville    95  75  96  75 /  10   0  20  50
Crossville     92  68  89  69 /  30  10  10  30
Columbia       98  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  20
Cookeville     92  71  91  72 /  20  10  10  40
Jamestown      92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  40
Lawrenceburg   95  73  96  73 /  20  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   98  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  30
Waverly        96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett