575
FXUS64 KOHX 160105
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
805 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

All of the convection along the plateau has dissipated leaving the
area completely dry. Conditions will stay dry through tomorrow
morning before isolated convection develops again. There could be
some patchy fog along the southern plateau late tonight for areas
that received some rain this afternoon. The main concern for
tomorrow continues to be the heat. Macon County was added to the
heat advisory, otherwise no changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

We have already issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon and
again for tomorrow, but mostly for tomorrow. We do expect a few
locations in the advisory area to reach a heat index of 105+
today, but even more so tomorrow. A surface ridge is situated to
our east today, placing us under a southwesterly flow at the
surface. There are some storm chances today mainly along the
Cumberland Plateau, and again for tomorrow. Tomorrow is going to
be the hottest day, because temperatures will start to back down
after tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A strong surface boundary will approach Middle Tennessee from the
northwest late tomorrow night, with storm chances developing by
the overnight period and becoming more widespread on Wednesday.
The boundary will become quasi-stationary over us (yay!) and won`t
completely make it through the mid state until Thursday night or
Friday, but will then come back through as a warm front as it
connects with a low pressure system out west this weekend and the
first part of next week. So we`re about to trade our hot, dry
pattern for a rainier spell with much cooler temperatures. At
this time, we aren`t outlooked for any severe storms. The only
hazardous weather is the Heat Advisory covering this afternoon
and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Widely scattered
thunderstorms in far eastern areas will diminish by 00-01z and
then we will see dry conditions into tomorrow morning. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon but confidence
on timing and how widespread they will be is low. Light westerly
winds under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77 100  78  95 /   0  10  30  80
Clarksville    75  97  74  90 /   0  10  50  70
Crossville     68  92  70  89 /  10  20  30  80
Columbia       74 100  75  96 /   0  10  20  70
Cookeville     72  93  73  89 /   0  10  30  80
Jamestown      70  92  71  88 /   0  20  30  80
Lawrenceburg   73  97  74  95 /  10  10  20  70
Murfreesboro   74 100  75  96 /  10  10  30  80
Waverly        74  98  74  91 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller