620
FXUS63 KOAX 082247
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally pleasant, mostly dry conditions are expected
  through the work week.

- Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Weather across the forecast area this afternoon is characterized
by temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a northwest
breeze generally less than 10 mph and scattered cumulus cloud
cover. Forecast soundings and analysis indicate that the air in
the sub cloud layer and in the mid troposphere are rather dry,
thus limiting ability for deeper updrafts to develop. There have
been one or two areas of very light reflectivity, but other than
a short lived sprinkle, think the area should be mostly dry.

Tuesday will be quite similar, and Wednesday as well, as the
remnants of Beryl pass to our southeast. Tuesday will feature
another low-end chance for sprinkles in the afternoon, while
Wednesday may end up being a bit better chance owing to a short
wave trough moving north to south and clipping the forecast area
with some extra forcing. This may be sufficient to support a few
storms, or even a convective complex (at the high end of the
potential range of outcomes). Even Thursday into Friday looks
similar in terms of overall weather, with low-end precip
potential mainly in the afternoon hours. The one thing that we
will see over the course of the week is a gradual warming
trend...into the mid 80s for highs early in the week and pushing
into the low 90s for a good chunk of the area by Friday.

Getting into the weekend, the dominant western CONUS ridge will
shift east a bit and extend into our region. Model guidance
indicates 850 temps in the upper 20s to low 30s C with ample
sunshine likely. This should lead to a period of higher end
temperatures into the middle and upper 90s, seemingly hottest
south and west. This is also the period of peak
evapotranspiration in the area and thus expect a high likelihood
of dewpoints in the middle 70s or higher. So, would expect heat
index values greater than 100 and possibly quite a bit warmer,
mainly for Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Winds will generally stay under 10 knots and prevail out of the
northwest at all TAF sites through tomorrow. A high pressure
center will track across the area tonight, so there may be a
period of time between 03Z and 12Z where winds will be truly
calm (0 knots) or briefly (for 1-3 hours) shift to be
southeasterly at 0-5 knots before a second high pressure system
shifts winds out of the northwest again (by 12Z). There is
enough model uncertainty to preclude inclusion of this wind
shift in TAFs at this time, though there is a low probability of
this occurring, hence its mention in the AFD. VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Darrah