423
FXUS63 KOAX 090722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
222 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally pleasant, mostly dry conditions are expected
  through the work week. Highest rain chances will be
  Wednesday.

- Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Outside of some patchy fog in IA early this morning, pretty
quiet across the region with temperatures largely in the 60s as
of 2 AM. An upper level trough axis stretched from the Great
Lakes into central TX, with a ridge and resulting heat
continuing to dominate the western CONUS. Meanwhile remnants of
Beryl continued to spin across AR and will push northeast
through the day today, keeping associated precip just to our
southeast. However, much like the last couple days, guidance
does suggest widespread cumulus development with potential for a
few spotty showers or even isolated storms with HREF mean
MUCAPE values just over 1000 J/kg. That said, soundings do
reveal quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, so it seems
unlikely that we`ll see much that persists for very long.

A similar situation looks to pan out Wednesday, though some
stronger shortwave energy will be sliding through from the
northwest, clipping roughly the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area.
This should lead to a little more widespread shower and storm
development, possibly starting during the morning as the
shortwave first gets here. Guidance also suggests a little more
instability to work with (HREF nearing 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE)
indicating at least an outside shot for a stronger storm or 2,
though this would seem more likely to our east where the
stronger forcing will track. Thursday and Friday will be similar
to early in the week with continued very spotty
sprinkle/shower/isolated storm chances, but overall lack of
forcing will limit coverage with both days seeing precip chances
less than 10 percent.

As we head into the weekend, the main story will become
building heat with highs in the 90s starting to creep into the
area Friday and then becoming widespread Saturday through
Monday. The general idea is the ridge over the western CONUS
will start to edge into the area with NAEFS guidance suggesting
850 mb temperatures of 25 to near 30 C, good for the 99th+
percentile of climatology at times. Mixing these down would
suggest highs in the triple digits for many, but for what
they`re worth this far out, model soundings show a little bit
shallower mixing. Still, it`s looking hot. Plus, humidity will
be on the increase with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s for
many. As a result, expect heat index values in the triple
digits, especially Sunday and Monday with at least a Heat
Advisory looking likely at some point. By Monday
afternoon/evening into Tuesday, a surface boundary looks to sag
south into the area, potentially bringing our next shot of
precipitation, though still a fair amount of spread on how
exactly that pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A high pressure system passing northwest of the region will help
winds at all TAF sites veer from northwesterly to northerly to
easterly. With the pressure center passing very close to TAF
sites, wind speeds will generally be less than 5 knots. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the
duration of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Darrah