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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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277 FXUS63 KOAX 100853 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds this afternoon into this evening. The chance for severe weather is low (5% or less), but it can`t be completely ruled out. - Most should remain dry through the weekend, but like many recent days, there could be some spotty showers and storms Thursday and Friday (5 to 15% chance). - Dangerous heat is expected for much of the area this weekend into Monday, with heat index readings of 100 to 110 degrees likely. Sunday and Monday will be the hottest days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Early morning radar imagery showed showers and storms near the SD/MN/IA border as a shortwave trough continued to push southeast. These may end up clipping portions of northeast NE and west-central IA this morning, but overall shouldn`t amount to much. However, additional storm development is expected this afternoon as we hit peak heating and a weak surface boundary slides through. The strongest forcing with the shortwave looks to stay to our east which should somewhat limit coverage over our area, but still think we`ll have enough to get at least a few storms going. Guidance indicates there will be some decent instability in place (1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE), but shear should remain rather weak and limit overall storm organization. Still, could see a few stronger storms with hail and gusty winds, and can`t completely rule out an isolated severe storm (around a 5% chance). Outside of those higher scattered storm chances, it should be a fairly similar day to yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, though maybe a touch more humidity. Tonight, light winds and clear skies could set the stage for fog development like the past few nights, though guidance is a little bit more widespread with it this time, likely owing to residual moisture from any precip we see today. Thursday and Friday will be similar with daytime cumulus and perhaps a few showers and isolated storms. Model soundings suggest a cap both days, but another shortwave on Friday should provide just enough forcing for some higher precip chances that day (still only around 15% at this point though). Attention then turns to the heat building in for the weekend into early next week as upper level ridging currently over the western CONUS edges east into our area. NAEFS guidance continues to suggest 850 mb temperatures in the 90th to 99th percentile of climatology, though we may not end up mixing quite that high. Regardless, should see high temperatures well into the 90s to possibly right around 100 in a few spots. In addition, southerly low level flow will be ushering in plenty of moisture which will combine with the evapotranspiration from crops to make it feel quite sticky. Expect dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s for most, though can`t completely rule out an isolated 80 degree reading in some spots. That said, southwesterly flow may keep dewpoints a tick lower than they otherwise would be. Still, expect heat index values in the triple digits Saturday through Monday. The highest values will be in southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday and Monday, when we could get into the 105 to 110 range. So it`s looking like another period of dangerous heat for some and would certainly expect at least a Heat Advisory at some point. A surface front does look to sag south into the area sometime late Monday into Tuesday and provide a little relief along with some precip chances, though still expect highs in the 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Isolated thunderstorms are possible (30 to 40 percent chance of rain) across portions of northeast and east-central Nebraska (KOFK and KOMA). Probabilities are too low to include in TAFs at this time, but the most likely time for precipitation will be between 18Z and 02Z. Just beyond the end of this forecast period, there is some signal for patchy fog to develop across the region. Uncertainties in coverage and timing may preclude inclusion in TAFs for the next couple forecast cycles if this signal persists. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Darrah