828
FXUS63 KOAX 171750
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into
  Saturday. There are additional spotty rain chances Sunday into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

The widescale pattern this morning displays a positively tilted upper
level trough over the Great Lakes region with a high amplitude ridge
over the western CONUS. This places much of the region in
northwesterly upper level flow, bringing an extended period of cool
temperatures. Patchy fog development is possible this morning,
especially in northeast Nebraska, yet model soundings are suggesting
that winds near the surface may be just enough to keep the fog away.

Surface high pressure is expected to build into the area today,
bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper
70s/low 80s. High temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees below the
climatological average (upper 80s) for mid July. A refreshing change
from the excessive heat that kicked off the week. Low temperatures
overnight will reach the mid-50`s, making it the perfect night to
air out the house with some windows open. These low temperatures are
also an approximate 10 degrees below our average of the upper 60s.
Similar calm and clear conditions will continue into Thursday with
highs in the low 80s and lows near 60.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough impinging the region will bring the next chance
of widespread precipitation to the area Friday evening into
Saturday. There is still plenty of time to work out the details in
terms of severe weather potential. However, current guidance is
keeping the best instability in western Nebraska with 500-1000 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear making its way into our
westernmost counties. CSU machine learning guidance also highlights
western Nebraska for severe weather potential. Current PoPs of 60 to
80 percent are in place for Friday night. Additional PoPs of 20 to
40 percent continue into the weekend as an upper level cutoff low
spins over IA/MO. Precipitation chances will certainly be something
to keep an eye on this weekend for those with outdoor plans.

Temperatures through the weekend are expected to stay in the cool
mid 70`s, with Saturday struggling to hit 75. Below average
temperatures will continue into the start of next work week.
Additional low end precipitation chances will continue into Monday
as a deep upper level trough remains over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the northeast today. We may see some scattered
clouds develop this afternoon around 4000-5000 feet but these
will dissipate after sunset. Winds will become light and
possibly variable overnight as they shift to the southeast by
Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy