![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
997 FXUS63 KOAX 180450 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will persist into next week. - Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into Sunday. There are additional spotty rain chances into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 This afternoon through Thursday: After the weekend heat, today is an absolute stunner of a day with temperatures around 80 degrees this afternoon, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and humidity down around 40 to 45 percent. The pattern supporting this absolutely phenomenal weather is a trough to our east creating nearly meridional flow pouring dry, cooler air out of north-central Canada down into the Northern Plains and eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. While we do see a shift to southeasterly winds at the surface tomorrow morning, we still remain under the northerly flow aloft, keeping this pattern in place one more day. Friday through Sunday: Late Thursday we start to see the trough to our east start to shift off to the northeast as well as the approach of a shortwave trough down the eastern side of the ridge over the western CONUS. This will push the belt of moisture advection eastward into northeast Nebraska by Friday morning bringing chances for showers to this area, while the rest of our area should remain dry during the day on Friday until the arrival of the shortwave and the cold front Friday night. Models have this boundary stalling across our area Saturday morning, keeping showers and storms prevalent through the day on Saturday, though severe potential remains low. Sunday, the surface low continues to meander around the MO-KS- NE-IA region, generating scattered showers and storms. Moisture may eventually become more cutoff during the afternoon as the low starts to shift farther east so precip chances start to drop but don`t completely go away. Monday through Tuesday: Going into early next week we transition into a fairly baroclinic pattern with continued moisture advection. We`ll have enough instability each afternoon and evening for isolated to scattered showers and storms, but not enough shear for any organized severe weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with some clouds at 5000-6000 ft developing by mid to late Thursday morning. Expect winds to remain light and generally easterly to southeasterly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA