Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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258 FXUS63 KOAX 031954 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms could affect the region from this evening into Thursday afternoon. Some severe weather is possible with the primary hazards being isolated occurrences of large hail and/or damaging winds. - Thunderstorm potential increases again Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with some severe weather appearing possible. - Daytime temperatures to remain near or below seasonal normals. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Numerous thunderstorms have developed from western through north central NE this afternoon, but well west of the forecast area. These thunderstorms should begin to move toward northeast NE by 7pm and beyond. The storms could be strong and possibly severe west of a line from Columbus to Wayne through midnight. By midnight, there storms could be more widespread across portions of eastern Nebraska, but they also tend to weaken as they continue to push farther east. That first cluster of showers/storms finally pushes east of the river 07-10z, meanwhile, the next round of storms begins to move into northeast NE which are more coincident with a weak frontal boundary moving into the region. This second round of storms has a lower chance of being severe, but also not zero. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s. Rainfall with the storms overnight could range from one half to one and one half inches in northeast NE, but should not be enough to cause any widespread flooding. Any firework displays could be impacted in northeast Nebraska this evening, but elsewhere, south of that Columbus/Wayne line should be fine for the 10 pm timeframe. There should be numerous showers/thunderstorms Thursday morning as the cold front continues to move through. This is typically an unfavorable time for severe storms, but a storm or two could still be strong north of I80, and east of Highway 77 with storm chances lingering through early afternoon. By 3-4 pm, the front will be mostly through the forecast area, with any additional strong and possibly severe thunderstorm development mostly likely expected across central IA and MO. High temperatures Thursday afternoon behind the rains will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The remainder of Thursday evening/night should very pleasant, so any Independence Day outdoor activities should be fine. Low temperatures Thursday night very comfortable in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday the main upper low remains across the western Great Lakes. We`ll have a continued northwesterly surface flow, and overall should be a pretty decent day, but there will be a 20% chance of showers for northeast NE closer to the periphery of the upper low. Highs Friday will again range in the upper 70s to lower 80s, generally a few degrees below normal. The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday as another subtle shortwave moves into the area out of the Rockies, which should help the stall previously mentioned cold front lift back north into the region. Storm chances increase again to 30-50%, and along with that comes a chance for severe storms, and additional heavy rainfall. High temperatures Saturday still remain very comfortable with highs again the upper 70s to middle 80s. Storm chances continue Sunday as another reinforcing wave moves through the region. And highs still remain below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The bulk of the rains may be east of the area by Monday, with northwesterly winds behind a weak frontal boundary. But again, we could be on the periphery of the upper level trough, so spotty showers can`t be ruled out. And temperatures again pretty comfortable and below normal in the lower 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday finally look generally dry with highs in the lower to middle 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions at TAF issuance. Thunderstorms will be possible at all three locations, at KOFK 04/02-05z, KLNK 05-08z, and KOMA 05-09z. Showers could be possible after the thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings developing by 15z at KOFK/KLNK, and KOMA by 17z toward the end of the TAF. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...DeWald