389
FXUS63 KOAX 050429
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or storm still possible in northeast NE and
  southwest IA early this evening.

- Another system will bring the chance for scattered strong to
  potentially severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and night.

- Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The storm threat has diminished for late this afternoon into
the early evening, although a stray shower or isolated non
severe thunderstorm still appears possible in western IA through
about 7 pm. And there could still be a shower or storm in
northeast NE from about 7-9 pm. Otherwise, it will be a pleasant
night for any fireworks celebrations later in the evening
around 10 pm. Overnight lows down into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Pretty quiet weather is expected for Friday with a breezy
northwesterly surface flow, with the main upper trough well to
the east across the western Great Lakes. This could result in
spotty showers in the MO River valley Friday afternoon. High
temperatures Friday still quite comfortable in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, still 5-8 degrees below normal.

Friday night and much of Saturday remain dry, but the next
shortwave moving out of the Rockies will bring another chance
for thunderstorms to central NE Saturday afternoon, then moving
into our area Saturday night into early Sunday. These storms
could be severe, with additional heavy rains possible Saturday
evening. Before the rain arrives, temperatures remain below
normal mostly in the lower 80s. Rainfall potential Saturday
night could range from one half to two inches, and the area
will be in both a marginal risk for severe weather and excessive
heavy rainfall.

There is a reinforcing short wave which helps push a weak cool
front into the area Sunday, which brings one more chance of
showers and storms that could linger into Sunday evening. Highs
Sunday are just slightly cooler mostly in the upper 70s, but
again, still well below normal.

The upper trough remains in the region Monday. This could result
in spotty showers Monday afternoon, with another comfortable day
in the lower 80s.

Tuesday looks dry with highs in the mid 80s, which is near, but
still just a degree or two below normal. Spotty shower chances
Wednesday, then dry Thursday, with highs in the mid 80s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MVFR visibilities at KLNK due to haze is expected to clear by
06-07Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the forecast period. Winds will remain northwesterly
and under 12 kts overnight. Winds will increase in speeds above
12 kts late Friday morning with gusts up to 22 kts possible
through the afternoon. Winds will eventually calm below 12 kts
Friday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Through July 4 in Omaha, we`ve had 8 days with 90 or greater
for afternoon Temperatures. This is just below the average of
about 10 days, but notably cooler than the previous 4 years when
values have ranged from 18 to 20 days each year from 2020
through 2023.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Wood
CLIMATE...DeWald