143
FXUS66 KMTR 091131
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
431 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 404 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Heat continues this week with another warm up late week. Temps
expected to peak Thursday for most. Excessive Heat Warning
continues for interior Monterey and San Benito, while Heat
Advisories go into effect Wednesday for inland areas throughout
the rest of the region. Cool down on the way for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Slight reprieve from the excessive heat today for most areas.
Starting the day with robust marine stratus coverage for coastal
and low-lying areas, coming in a bit faster overnight tonight
compared to last night...a sign of things to come. Most locations
shave off 4-6 degrees from yesterday`s highs as a shortwave
trough embedded in the ridge temporarily deepens the marine layer,
reinforcing the aforementioned marine stratus for the overnight
periods. By later tonight, the shortwave trough lifts inland and
becomes rather diluted while the ridge builds further and 500 mb
heights rise once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

With the ridge building through midweek, Wednesday starts what we
expect to be the last major peak of this heat wave. Temperatures
look to peak Thursday, with highs on par with what we`ve already
seen over the past several days. Far inland areas 100-110, lower
elevation areas more near the bays ranging from 85-100, coastal
areas mid-60s to lower 80s. Heat Advisories are in effect for
inland areas from Wednesday through Friday, while the Excessive
Heat Warning for interior Monterey and San Benito continues today
through Friday.

A more substantial cool down is expected this weekend as the ridge
finally begins to migrate eastward, and a deep upper low forms in
the Gulf of Alaska. This deeper trough pattern over the EPac
should help to deepen our marine layer further and brings temps
back down to normal territory across the region by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Mix of VFR and LIFR conditions across the board. Satellite imagery
currently shows stratus located along the coast and starting to move
inland. Widespread stratus is expected tonight with all stations,
excluding LVK, seeing IFR to LIFR conditions. Stratus coverage is
expected to dissipate by mid to late morning as moderate winds
return. Onshore flow from the west to northwest continues through
the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Borderline MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
overnight with satellite imagery showing stratus already reaching
SFO. Moderate onshore flow from the northwest persists through the
TAF period. Winds are expected to become gusty tomorrow afternoon
with gusts up to 24 knots currently expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR continuing through the mid to late
morning. Visibility is expected to drop by the early morning with
visibilities down to 1SM currently expected. Patchy fog may develop
overnight with low to moderate confidence that visibilities <1SM
will develop. Light winds out of the northwest continue overnight
before becoming more moderate during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Moderate west to northwesterly flow continues into Tuesday with
the  occasional fresh gust possible over the outer coastal waters.
Winds  strengthen heading into Wednesday with fresh to strong
gusts  becoming more widespread over the coastal waters. Beginning
mid-week  and continuing through the late weekend, significant
wave heights  will build to between 10 to 13 ft on average over
the outer coastal  waters. Portions of the northern outer coastal
waters will see wave  heights peak between 13 to 15 feet during
the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for
     CAZ502>504-506-508-510-512>516-528.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ517-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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