836
FXUS66 KMTR 151911
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1211 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1146 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Marine layer stratus is gradually retreating back to the coast
with a beautiful afternoon in store. Cooler weather will continue
through mid-week before a modest warm-up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The trend for cooler temperatures continues as the upper level
trough inches to the north. This will help promote some more onshore
flow tonight causing the marine layer to deepen and push more
inward. This will result in another rinse and repeat of early return
of clouds near the coast tonight, with gloomy mornings along the
coast and some parts inland. Temperatures tonight will be similar to
last night with some areas seeing 1-2 degrees drop, but temperatures
overall will see minimums in the 50s, with some isolated areas in
the 60s. Similar trend for the maximum temperatures on Tuesday, with
1-2 degrees drop. Coastal areas will see max temperatures in the
60s, while inland will see mid to high 70s to high 80s. Higher
terrains, especially near Monterey County and San Benito counties,
may see temperatures in the mid to high 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1146 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Quiet weather will continue through Wednesday with marine layer
clouds in the morning and comfortable temperatures in the
afternoon. Winds will gradually shift from SW to NW and strengthen
to a moderate breeze along the coast. Overall nice cool weather
to start the week before a modest warm-up.

Remember that 12 day heat wave we just went through? Remember how
it was caused by a strong, slow-moving high pressure system that
brought descending air and triple digit heat to inland areas.
Well believe it or not, that same high pressure dome is coming
back for a curtain call. Currently centered over the 4 corners
region, this system is still quite strong. The 12Z sounding from
Albuquerque measured a 500 mb height of 5,960m, which ranks in
the top 1% of the historical record. There is very good agreement
in the guidance that this feature will gradually retrograde back
to the west, although it`s not yet clear how far. While the
details are still being ironed out, expect another period of warm
weather late this week and into the weekend. Fortunately, we are
not expecting a repeat of the recent extreme temperatures, but
minor to moderate HeatRisk is expected for the usual inland areas
starting Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Stratus continues to erode back to the coast. Therefore, VFR should
prevail for most terminals shortly after 18Z. Monterey Bay terminals
may linger a bit longer into the late morning/early afternoon.
Stratus will return early this evening bringing MVFR/IFR conditions
along the coastal terminals and will continue to push inland over
the remainder terminals. Clearing may start to occur again near 17Z
Tuesday. Onshore winds will build near the afternoon to breezy and
strong, then start to diminish into the evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR continues to lift, and is expect to become
VFR right before 18Z. Stratus will return tonight with a chance it
will alternate between SCT and BKN, therefore TEMPO was placed
between 04-06Z. Most models agree that low clouds will prevail near
06Z tonight. Onshore breezy/strong winds return in the afternoon,
then diminish tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR with stratus slowly lifting.
Expect VFR shortly after 18z. Low clouds will return this evening
bringing MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A weak disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is supporting a light
southerly breeze and low stratus clouds or fog today. As this
disturbance dissipates tomorrow, the standard East Pacific
subtropical high pressure pattern will return, bringing a moderate
to fresh NW breeze for the remainder of the week. These winds
will gradually build rough, short period seas by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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