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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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562 FXUS64 KMRX 110150 AAB AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 950 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Surface high pressure is building into the plateau and will settle across the Tennessee valley later tonight. It was noted this evening that the high temperature for the day in some locations actually occurred very early this morning, before daybreak. While temperatures didn`t fall through the day like would occur in the cooler seasons with a strong cold front passage, that is still fairly unusual for July. Given the radiational conditions that will be in place due to encroaching surface high and low dewpoints, think the previous shift`s thinking of patchy fog development tonight seems a good bet. All things considered, the forecast is tracking along nicely and saw no need to adjust anything. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Key Messages: 1. Patchy fog possible overnight, dry weather to continue. Tomorrow a little warmer. Discussion: Temperature wise today has been an excellent day! With frontal passage thanks to post tropical cyclone Beryl helping to push cooler and drier air into the region, today has shaped up to be a good day. Radar reveals that the puffy but flat cumulostratus field might be producing a few sprinkles here and there, especially across northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia, but these amount to effectively nothing. Tonight, temperatures will cool to regular July lows, and if the clearing skies allow, possibly some patchy fog briefly in the early morning tomorrow. Warmer air aloft tomorrow indicate slightly warmer afternoon temperatures, but the post frontal airmass will continue to keep the dewpoints down, so it won`t feel muggy outdoors. Outside of regular diurnal clouds tomorrow afternoon, it will be much sunnier, so if you prefer more sun, then that`ll be your day to shine. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Key Messages: 1. Lower humidity this weekend, although heat will return too. Temperatures early next week to approach record highs. 2. Low afternoon chance of showers or thunderstorms, likely isolated to the mountains. Dry weather likely to persist for most. Discussion: Weather pattern through the extended period will remain fairly quiet. Lower dewpoints from Friday through the weekend would be welcome if it weren`t for the matter that high temps will be above normal regardless, climbing a degree or two each day, from the low- mid 90s on Friday to the mid-upper 90s on Sunday across the Valley areas. But the temps will keep climbing next Mon and Tues, while dewpoints will rise a little bit as well to start the new work week. This will result in heat indices reaching 100-103 on Monday in the central and southern Valley areas, and possibly 102-105 on Tuesday. As for convection, it doesn`t seem that the southern Rockies High to the west and the Bermuda High to the east will let an organized weather system into the area, so count on mainly isolated to scattered diurnal convection over the higher terrain through the weekend, with coverage increasing into the Valley areas Tues and Wed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Currently have VFR conditions in the forecast for all sites through the period. There is some potential for fog at KTRI towards the daybreak hours though. Recent rainfall, along with light winds and cool temperatures (for mid-July) would favor fog development. But we`ve also been very dry. Tend to believe there will be patch fog around come daybreak tomorrow, but not confident enough to even include a TEMPO for it at this time, much less a prevailing group. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CD LONG TERM....GC AVIATION...CD