802
FXUS64 KMRX 110519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Surface high pressure is building into the plateau and will
settle across the Tennessee valley later tonight. It was noted
this evening that the high temperature for the day in some
locations actually occurred very early this morning, before
daybreak. While temperatures didn`t fall through the day like
would occur in the cooler seasons with a strong cold front
passage, that is still fairly unusual for July. Given the
radiational conditions that will be in place due to encroaching
surface high and low dewpoints, think the previous shift`s
thinking of patchy fog development tonight seems a good bet. All
things considered, the forecast is tracking along nicely and saw
no need to adjust anything.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Patchy fog possible overnight, dry weather to continue. Tomorrow
a little warmer.

Discussion:

Temperature wise today has been an excellent day! With frontal
passage thanks to post tropical cyclone Beryl helping to push cooler
and drier air into the region, today has shaped up to be a good day.
Radar reveals that the puffy but flat cumulostratus field might be
producing a few sprinkles here and there, especially across
northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia, but these amount to
effectively nothing.

Tonight, temperatures will cool to regular July lows, and if the
clearing skies allow, possibly some patchy fog briefly in the early
morning tomorrow. Warmer air aloft tomorrow indicate slightly
warmer afternoon temperatures, but the post frontal airmass will
continue to keep the dewpoints down, so it won`t feel muggy
outdoors. Outside of regular diurnal clouds tomorrow afternoon, it
will be much sunnier, so if you prefer more sun, then that`ll be
your day to shine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Lower humidity this weekend, although heat will return too.
Temperatures early next week to approach record highs.

2. Low afternoon chance of showers or thunderstorms, likely isolated
to the mountains. Dry weather likely to persist for most.

Discussion:

Weather pattern through the extended period will remain fairly
quiet. Lower dewpoints from Friday through the weekend would be
welcome if it weren`t for the matter that high temps will be above
normal regardless, climbing a degree or two each day, from the low-
mid 90s on Friday to the mid-upper 90s on Sunday across the Valley
areas.

But the temps will keep climbing next Mon and Tues, while dewpoints
will rise a little bit as well to start the new work week. This will
result in heat indices reaching 100-103 on Monday in the central and
southern Valley areas, and possibly 102-105 on Tuesday.

As for convection, it doesn`t seem that the southern Rockies High to
the west and the Bermuda High to the east will let an organized
weather system into the area, so count on mainly isolated to
scattered diurnal convection over the higher terrain through the
weekend, with coverage increasing into the Valley areas Tues and
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light fog possible near the KTRI airport before sunrise with the
lower overnight temperatures expected. Outside of any fog light
winds and VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  68  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  69  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  64  91  67 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....GC
AVIATION...