007
FXUS64 KMRX 111914
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather expected to continue. Friday is several degrees
warmer, kicking off a several day heat wave across the area.
Precautions should be taken to keep cool and hydrated.

Discussion:

Today is the last great day of regular summer weather before nature
decides to increase the heat once more. Visible satellite this
afternoon depicts a puffy cumulus field forming along our many
topography features, and temperatures have maintained their match to
forecast with seasonable weather and low relative humidity.

Tonight temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night into
this morning, as we continue our warming trend. Fog this morning
had been fairly limited to Virginian and Kentucky valleys, and
that might be the most expected tomorrow morning. Upper ridge
begins to push back north, kicking the upper trough away, yielding
higher temperatures tomorrow. Afternoon high temperatures south
of Interstate 40 will be in the mid to upper 90s, kicking off the
first day of a major heatwave. While we have had a hot summer so
far, it is imperative to note that precautions from the heat are
necessary to keep cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warming temperatures this weekend but afternoon humidity will
fall into the 30-40% range Sat-Tues. Temperatures early next week to
approach record highs.

2. Low afternoon chance of showers or thunderstorms in the
mountains. Dry weather likely to persist for most.

3. Wednesday and Thursday rain chances areawide.

Discussion:

Not too many ways to tell the same story about the upper highs over
the southern Rockies and the west Atlantic. This upper level pattern
will keep things fairly uneventful through Tuesday, with mainly
isolated higher elevation afternoon convection expected each day.
The main weather feature will be the heat, with temperatures nearing
record highs and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees in the central
and southern Valley areas, especially with Monday through Wednesday
likely being the hottest.

A weather system will then try to move into the area midweek, with a
frontal boundary trying to slowly move through, acting as a precip
focal point. So rain chances will increase Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday. In fact, QPF at the moment calls for roughly 0.5 to 1.0
inches total from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon, a
little more in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR and dry weather expected through the TAF period. Gusty winds
at CHA and TYS will approach near calm conditions after 00z.
Patchy fog possible overnight, but no impacts to terminals
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  98  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  92  67  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....GC
AVIATION...Wellington