![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
069 FXUS64 KMRX 081129 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Key Messages: 1. Isolated to scattered showers and storms areawide this afternoon and early evening. 2. Heat Index in the 100-105 range in the southern Valley this afternoon. Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough remains over the Great Plains and Midwest. A weak ridge is over the Southeast and a closed low is off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern is in place with a stationary boundary still lingering just south and east of the region in Northern Georgia and Western North/South Carolina. Most of the region will have 20 to 40 percent rain chances today with higher chances closer to the boundary near the East Tennessee Mountains and Southwest North Carolina. Most of the CAMs have showers and storms more isolated in the Tennessee Valley. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon in the Tennessee Valley. With dew points creeping up into the 70s again, heat indices will be 100 to 105 in the Southern Valley. A Heat Advisory will likely not be issued today since most areas will stay below the 105 threshold. Remnants of tropical system Beryl, will start to move into Arkansas tonight but our rain chances will remain low overnight. Patchy fog will be possible in the early morning hours but may be contingent on rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Key Messages: 1. Heat indices of 100-105 degrees Tuesday as low-level moisture increases over the Tennessee Valley region. 2. Afternoon convection likely for several days this week, and remnants of Beryl will bring the best chances of rain to the region. But likely not enough to bust the drought. Discussion: Tuesday will likely be the hottest day of the week with temperatures expected to be very similar to Monday, but dew point values should be a few degrees higher leading to more muggy conditions and higher Heat Index Values. A Heat Advisory may be needed for places along and south of Interstate 40 as the Heat Index will likely cross over the triple digit mark. But regardless or not if a Heat Advisory is technically needed it will be HOT regardless across the entire area...and heat safety should be practiced in the hottest and sunniest parts of the day. Moving into Wednesday we`ll get a very slight cool down and some of our better chances of rainfall as the remnants of Beryl looks to move through the Western Tennessee Valley, and will hopefully bring enhanced moisture and more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening Tuesday and Wednesday. Fairly high confidence we will see storm development on Tuesday and Wednesday, but lower confidence on where the storms are and how much rain people see from them. Slightly cooler temperatures will remain in place through at least Thursday with most places hopefully staying below the 90 degree mark on Thursday. Moving into Friday we`ll see ridging building in as we move through the weekend and a gradual warming trend into next week with once again near triple digit Heat Index values to start off next week with. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 710 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 There is some high cloud moving in from the west today but will probably stay scattered most of the period. Showers and storms will likely be isolated this afternoon in the Tennessee Valley, therefore went with PROB30 group to show low end chances of storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 76 96 77 / 30 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 74 95 76 / 30 30 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 94 74 95 74 / 30 20 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 94 72 / 30 20 50 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...McD AVIATION...McD