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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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019 FXUS06 KWBC 041902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu July 04 2024 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2024 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE model solutions are in good agreement with a high amplitude 500-hPa trough over Mainland Alaska while a downstream mid-level ridge shifts east across the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). This amplified longwave pattern yields increased chances of below (above) normal temperatures for Alaska (western and north-central CONUS). These ensemble means are consistent that a mid-level trough, initially over the Mississippi Valley, weakens by day 8. Although near normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Midwest, warmer-than-normal temperatures are anticipated by day 10. The expectation of enhanced cloudiness and rainfall favor below-normal temperatures for much of the south-central CONUS. Above-normal temperatures are more likely closer to the East Coast due to little if any cold air advection east of the Appalachians. As of 11am EDT on July 4, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) states that Hurricane Beryl will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and reemerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Beryl is expected to make a final landfall along the western Gulf Coast prior to this outlook period. By day 6, the GEFS and ECENS indicate that the remnant low, associated with Beryl, could be anywhere from the Rio Grande Valley to eastern Texas or the lower Mississippi Valley. There is another following tropical wave that NHC states has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone (TC) during the next week. The majority of ensemble members have this tropical wave or TC tracking towards northeastern Mexico or the lower Rio Grande Valley on days 6 and 7. The combination of the remnant low, associated with Beryl, and the following tropical wave or TC support enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities across the western Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and southern Great Plains. The increased chances of above-normal precipitation probabilities across the eastern CONUS are related to the amplified trough initially over the Mississippi Valley. These above-normal precipitation probabilities are further enhanced for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a stationary front provides a focus for diurnal convection. For the second consecutive day, precipitation tools trended wetter across the Southwest as the 500-hPa ridge axis lifts northward to the Four Corners region. A highly amplified ridge favors below-normal precipitation for much of the northern half of the western CONUS along with the northern to central Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Troughing across Alaska favors increased above-normal precipitation probabilities across the state. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii. Due to weak and conflicting signals among the precipitation tools, near normal precipitation is forecast. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to a high amplitude longwave pattern over Alaska and the western CONUS and good agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2024 The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent that the high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS expands eastward during mid-July. The manual 500-hPa height blend depicts +30 meter anomaly departures for much of the lower 48 states, which is substantial for the summer. 500-hPa height anomalies increase to more than 60 meters across the northern third of the CONUS. This expansive and anomalous 500-hPa ridge favors above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the lower 48 states except for parts of Texas where enhanced cloudiness and rainfall may linger. The largest probabilities (more than 80 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains where 7-day temperatures are likely to average more than +10 degrees F. A persistent trough favors a continuation of cooler-than-normal temperatures across Alaska. The week-2 precipitation outlook is based on continuity from previous days along with the consolidation (skill-weighted combination of GEFS and ECMWF reforecasts) and the analog tool derived from the 500-hPa height blend. Enhanced low-level moisture coupled with a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge are expected to result in scattered diurnal convection each day throughout much of the eastern and south-central CONUS. The precipitation tools depict a couple of maximum probability areas including the eastern Carolinas and Texas. Model solutions depict a 500-hPa ridge axis over the Four Corners which is a favorable location for an enhanced Monsoon. Precipitation tools have trended wetter today across the Great Basin and central Rockies as the enhanced Monsoon moisture is expected to spread northward. Anomalous mid-level ridging favors below-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest east to the northern and central Great Plains. Cyclonic flow and below-normal 500-hPa heights support above-normal precipitation probabilities throughout Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii. Due to weak and conflicting signals among the precipitation tools, near normal precipitation is forecast. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on the evolving longwave pattern and good agreement between the dynamical and statistical tools. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on July 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20050629 - 20060620 - 20040615 - 20070616 - 19790716 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20050628 - 20070616 - 20000623 - 20030627 - 20040615 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 10 - 14 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 12 - 18 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$