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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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071 FXUS63 KMQT 102317 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog west tonight. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the picture again over the weekend. Severe storm risk will need to be monitored for Sunday and Monday, maybe Tuesday as well. - Very warm over the weekend with high temperatures well into the mid and upper 80s F. About a 10% chance of widespread high temperatures at or above 90F. Cooling trend begins Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 As the remnants of Beryl move northeast into New England this evening, surface ridging over northern Ontario will build southward across the Upper Great Lakes. Other than an isolated shra or two near the WI line early this evening skies will be mainly clear with light winds. With near optimal cooling conditions, patchy fog will develop across the interior west after midnight. Temperatures will cool to the lower to mid 50s for most but interior west typically cooler locations will fall into the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Last 24hrs of medium range model runs have maintained consistency on the large scale evolution of the flow across N America over the next 7 to 10 days, and if anything, agreement has improved a little. There has been slight progression of western N America mid-level ridging and central N America troffing over the last 24hrs. This progression will continue over the next few days as a shortwave moving off of the ne Pacific into Canada flattens the ridge and forces height rises/positive height anomalies to spread downstream across southern Canada. A second wave will quickly follow off of the ne Pacific Fri/Sat. As ridging then rebuilds over western N America, that wave will be forced se, leading to modest trof amplification over eastern Canada and the ne U.S. during the mid week period next week. For Upper MI, this evolution of the pattern will support a drier pattern to finish up the work week. There are still indications for a shortwave to pass early weekend, supporting the potential of shra/tsra later Sat/Sat night. The next potential of greater coverage pcpn events as well as possible svr storms will be late weekend/early next week in advance of and in association with the onset of eastern troffing. As for temps, the spreading of positive height anomalies downstream across southern Canada will herald a warming trend beginning Thu, leading to a very warm/humid weekend with highs well into the 80s to 90F. Cooler weather will follow once eastern troffing develops early next week. Still looks like there will be a couple of pleasant U.P. summer days in the midweek period next week as Canadian high pres settles over the Great Lakes region. Ridging recovers Thursday as the remnants of Beryl move through southern Quebec. With an otherwise light wind field, lake breezes should rule the day. However, a very dry column will preclude any convection, perhaps with just some cumulus popping along the boundaries. As we`ll be on the back edge of the ridge Friday, winds increase out of the SW and usher in a warming trend. High temps in the mid 70s to lwr 80s on Thu will rise to mostly the 80s on Fri. Expect locally cooler conditions along Lake Superior and Lake MI on Thu and mainly just near Lake MI on Fri as a s to sw gradient wind takes over. Over the weekend, warming under sw flow will send high temps well into the mid and upper 80s F. Widespread values around 90F area-wide are becoming less likely, but NBM continues to highlight our s/sw downsloping areas for a high probability (60-90% chance) of highs around or in excess of 90F for Sat-Sun. With lows through the weekend only in the lower to mid 60s, we won`t have much relief from the heat overnight. Additionally, dewpoints in the 60s will keep things feeling rather muggy. Arrival of a shortwave supports the potential of sct shra/tsra Sat aftn/Sat night. Then late weekend/early next week, timing of main shortwave that brings cooling to the area is still fairly uncertain. However, ahead of that wave, models continue to show other subtle waves that will be progressing thru wnw flow into the Upper Great Lakes Sun-Tue. Given the substantial instability that will build due to the very warm/humid conditions over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and the climatologically favored wnw flow regime for summer svr storms in Upper MI, there will be a risk of svr storm complexes with these waves. Of course, at this time range, timing of these subtle waves and the resulting convection, including where convection develops, is highly uncertain. Will certainly be something to monitor Sun as an EML nosing into the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes potentially leads to even steeper values of CAPE. Much of the guidance available at that range also shows sufficient deep layer shear to sustain updrafts. Though soundings are less impressive on Monday, the threat for strong/severe convection is still worth monitoring then, and maybe Tuesday as well. Fcst reflects a broad brushing of chc pops, generally 30-40pct, Sun thru Tue. Cooling should get underway Tuesday into the middle of the week as the main trough drops through, leading to what should be pleasant U.P. summer weather Wed/Thu as Canadian high pres settles over the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Mostly clear skies will prevail in this period. However a brief period of low MVFR ceilings will be possible at KSAW this evening early in the TAF period. The clear and calm conditions overnight will allow fog/mist to develop tonight. Visibilities may dip down to MVFR and IFR. KIWD may periodically see LIFR vis. Expect the fog/mist to lift and mix out after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A weak pres gradient will dominate over and in the vcnty of Lake Superior for the next several days. Result will be winds across Lake Superior under 20kt and often under 15kt. Some increase in winds may occur over the weekend with high pres to the se and low pres troffing to the w and nw. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...JTP MARINE...LC