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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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430 FXUS63 KMQT 111729 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 129 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast over the weekend. Severe storm risk will need to be monitored for Sunday and Monday. - Very warm and muggy over the weekend with high temperatures into the mid and upper 80s F. About a 10% chance of widespread high temperatures at or above 90F. Cooling trend begins Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning. Most of the area is starting off with sunny skies, but some diurnal cumulus is beginning to pop in the higher terrain of northern Marquette county. With a dry airmass, this isn`t considered a harbinger of any precipitation today. Otherwise, temperatures are already in the mid 60s ,and should be able to reach well into the 70s to lower 80s away from the lakes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Satellite imagery shows clear skies overhead as high pressure ridging continues over the Upper Midwest. However, with the clear skies allowing for temperatures to plummet to the dewpoint early this morning, expect to see some patchy fog develop over the west half beginning in an hour or so. The fog looks to continue and spread east with time early this morning until dawn; the fog will be burned off by the mid-morning hours. Expect sunny skies today with a weaker lake breeze developing from the Great Lakes; high temperatures are expected to be about the same as yesterday, although some spots may be a degree or two warmer. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Last 24hrs of medium range model runs have maintained consistency on the large scale flow evolution across N America over the next 7 to 10 days, and the model agreement on the large scale is now very good thru the middle of next week. A shortwave that has moved off of the Gulf of AK is currently cutting thru the northern portion of the mid- level ridging that has been over western N America, and that wave is already aiding the spread of height rises/positive height anomalies downstream across southern Canada. A second wave will quickly follow off of the Gulf of AK on Fri. As ridging then rebuilds over western N America, that wave along with another dropping out of the high latitudes will be forced se, leading to modest trof amplification over eastern Canada and the ne U.S./Great Lakes during the mid week period next week. For Upper MI, this evolution of the pattern will support dry weather overall into the early part of the weekend. There are indications for a shortwave to pass early weekend, supporting the potential of shra/tsra later Sat/Sat night. Then ahead of the trof amplification next week, there may be several shortwaves progressing into the Upper Lakes under wnw flow, providing the potential for clusters of thunderstorms, some svr, tracking from the Northern Plains to Great Lakes. Dry weather will then return Wed or Thu at the latest as axis of amplifying trof shifts e of the area. As for temps, the spreading of positive height anomalies downstream across southern Canada will herald a warming trend, leading to a very warm/humid weekend with highs well into the 80s to 90F. Cooling will begin Mon/Tue with coolest conditions Wed/Thu, Wed in particular under troffing thru the Great Lakes. Should be pleasant U.P. summer weather for much of the last half of next week as Canadian high pres settles over the Great Lakes region. Beginning tonight, expect a quiet night with sfc high pres just drifting to the e and se of Upper MI. Lows will range from the lwr 50s to around 60F. On Fri, the question is whether any diurnal convection might develop. Compared to 24hr ago, models offer more conflicting signals now with more solutions showing some aftn shra/tsra and not necessarily in the vcnty of lake breezes either. Models that have isold shra/tsra are the ones that have sufficient boundary layer moisture to allow parcels to get passed capping. At this point, inclined to maintain a dry fcst given lack of moisture advection and uncertainty on whether there will be sufficient boundary layer moisture. In addition, there are weak mid-level height rises during the day. If some convection does develop, it would very likely be isold in coverage. Expect high temps in the 80s on Fri though it will be locally cooler along Lake MI due to s to sw gradient wind. Over the weekend, warming under low-level sw flow will send high temps into the mid and upper 80s F. NBM probabilities of exceeding 90F are mostly localized, and the only larger area is over s central Upper MI on Sun at 10-20pct. Probabilities of exceeding 90F peak in the s to sw wind downslope areas near Lake Superior on Sat with probabilities as high as 60-90pct. It will become increasingly muggy. Dwpts on the Sun will be mostly in the 65-70F range, so conditions will be quite uncomfortable. Arrival of a shortwave supports the potential of sct shra/tsra Sat aftn/Sat night. Then late weekend/early next week continues to be a period to monitor for thunderstorms and svr potential. A series of waves will be tracking thru wnw flow, a climatologically favorable flow for summertime severe storms in Upper MI. Given the substantial instability that will build due to the very warm/humid conditions over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, there will be a risk of svr storm complexes with passing shortwaves. Of course at this time range, timing of the waves, where convection develops in response to the waves and where it subsequently tracks, remain uncertain. There is some signal from multiple models for a cluster of shra/tsra (should be weakening at that time) to reach western Upper MI late Sat night/early Sun morning and then continue se during the morning. More storms would then be possible late Sun and again Mon aftn. So, Sun/Mon will be days to monitor for a svr storm risk. The svr potential may extend into Tue as well, but models currently point toward instability being shunted s and e of Upper MI by that time. Fcst reflects a broad brushing of chc pops, generally 30-50pct Sun/Mon, highest on Sun. Pcpn chc diminishes on Tue. Cooling will get underway Mon/Tue, more so Tue, leading to what should be pleasant U.P. summer weather for the much of the last half of the week as Canadian high pres settles over the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Mostly clear skies dominate the TAF period with light winds throughout. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A weak pres gradient will dominate over and in the vcnty of Lake Superior thru the weekend. Result will be winds across Lake Superior remaining under 20kt and often under 15kt. The potential of strong to severe thunderstorms will increase over the weekend with Sun/Mon the main days to monitor. Even if strong or svr storms avoid Lake Superior, the clusters of thunderstorms moving across or near Lake Superior may generate some periods of stronger winds at times late Sat thru Mon due to the pres changes that the storm clusters create. Once rainfall occurs over the lake, areas of fog will likely develop as well. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...LC MARINE...Rolfson