Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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758 FXUS63 KMQT 080537 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 137 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Through at least Tuesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in the afternoons. - Drier weather expected for the last half of this week, though ~10% chance Beryl`s remnants complicate the forecast. - Hot weather possible into the weekend, with ~25% chance of isolated high temperatures in the 90s over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 As of 730 pm EDT, cluster of showers and thunderstorms straddles the WI/MI border in eastern Gogebic County associated with a broad lower- level confluence zone. One storm briefly perked up SW of Marenisco earlier in an environment of 30 kt deep layer shear and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, showing a broad mesocyclone and likely producing around 0.5" hail, but otherwise, activity has been fairly shallow. Still not out of the question for a stronger core to develop and result in small hail and gusty winds to the east and northeast of current activity through Baraga/Iron Counties given the aforementioned thermodynamic/kinematic environment, especially where storm mergers occur with some downstream showers moving more northerly. Storms are rather slow moving so locally heavy rainfall can be expected as well. HRRR suggests this activity may persist through around 03Z as it moves E/NE before weakening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Water vapor imagery showing upper low over northern MN with several weak shortwaves rotating around it over WI and western Lake Superior. Given proximity to the U.P. combined with diurnal heating have already seen scattered shras and tsras develop over the western third of the U.P. A couple other shras have developed along the Lake Michigan lake breeze along the Seney stretch. While a brief stronger storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon given marginal shear up to 25 knots and CAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg, expect storms to lack organization. Most activity will diminish this evening with sunset but as weak shortwave migrates eastward will maintain slight/low chance pops over the eastern U.P. through the night. Areas that do see some rain over the west, especially near evening time may then see some patchy fog develop overnight tonight. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 By Monday morning, cutoff 500mb high will be over the SW CONUS with a ridge axis extending NNW along the Pacific coast of North America, leading to 500mb height anomalies of up to +18 over the Vancouver area per the 12Z GEFS. The high will remain largely stationary throughout the week, but the ridge axis to the north will rotate through the early portions of the week as a Gulf of Alaska trough will kick the ridge axis to the east. For the early portions of the week, the weak shortwaves spilling down from the peak of the ridge and with some help from diurnal heating, will allow for daily thundershower chances until the ridge axis progresses far enough east for a surface high pressure to dampen precipitation chances. The remnants of Beryl may throw a wrench in the forecast as it passes south of the UP in the back half of the week, but regardless, some hotter weather will return to the UP for the weekend with 90s not out of the question (10-25%) for typical hot spots. To begin the week, one of the aforementioned 500mb shortwave troughs will sweep over the UP on Monday, supporting surface troughing of around 1010mb. This will certainly help force some showers and thunderstorms and 12Z HREF mean SBCAPE does climb to over 1000 J/kg over the interior west and central UP. However, with only around 20kt of bulk shear, storms will likely be disorganized, so only garden variety pulse thunderstorms are expected. This is shown in the very scattered pattern shown in the HREF reflectivity plots. Timing-wise, most of the HREF members show initiation around 18Z Monday with a pretty sharp dropoff in shower coverage and intensity after sunset. Tuesday looks to be yet another day with a shortwave passing over the UP with diurnal thundershowers expected, but PoPs are lower than the previous day (20-50% instead of 40-80%) thanks to a weaker shortwave providing less PVA and overall height rises occurring coincident with tropa. With the 00Z LREF still showing mean CAPE values around 500 J/kg, there are chances (~30%) of thunder, but should be well sub-severe. The complications come Wednesday through the end of the week as the ridge axis moves over the Canadian Prairie and forces a 1015-1020mb high pressure that approaches the Upper Great Lakes through the day Wednesday. However, the remnants of Beryl will swing northeast after making landfall in TX, with the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance bringing the remnants through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. The strength and path of both Beryl and the ridge will have implications on the forecast through the end of the week. For now, the current forecast reflects the solution that the high pressure prevails over at least Lake Superior into the weekend, though the 12Z GEFS still shows a 10-20% chance of the remnants of Beryl passing within 200 km of the eastern UP, so the forecast is definitely not set in stone at this point. However, confidence is increasing that after Beryl`s remnant low passes through the Great Lakes and flow aloft shifts from northwesterly to be more westerly, hot temperatures could return to the UP, with the NBM showing about a 25% chance of isolated 90 degree highs and 5-10% chance of more widespread 90s highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Main potential impacts in the 06Z TAF cycle are fog potential early this morning and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. Given earlier rainfall at IWD/CMX and low dewpoint depression, MVFR/IFR fog/mist is possible through around daybreak. VFR conditions should return shortly after sunrise as any fog burns off. Afternoon destabilization combined with an approaching wave should touch off showers and thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon and evening. Though not totally out of the question for IWD/CMX to see a shower or storm this afternoon, only VCTS/VCSH, respectively, was included in the TAF as more stable air looks to arrive fairly early in the afternoon to limit potential at both terminals. Potential for multiple rounds of showers/storms at SAW today from early afternoon through the evening with low confidence on timing. PROB30 was included during the most probable timeframe for tsra. VFR should prevail outside of any showers or storms, but brief heavy downpours could result in IFR vsby reductions in any storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through this week as high pressure ridging over the western US slowly drifts eastwards throughout the forecast period. That being said, some thunderstorms are possible across the lake this afternoon through tonight, and then along the nearshores Monday and Tuesday. Wave heights will remain below 2 feet through the duration of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...Thompson SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...Thompson/Rolfson MARINE...GS/TAP