713
FXUS63 KMQT 051833
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
233 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mainly dry Saturday, but a rain shower cannot be entirely ruled out
in the interior west late in the afternoon.

-Sunday through Wednesday, daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest chances in the afternoons.

-Dry period could begin Thursday and continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Water vapor imagery showingshortwave/mid-level low moving out of WI
into Lake Michigan. Dry slotting over the central U.P. has kept the
precipitation to mainly isolated shras there but with some recent
breaks in the clouds across baraga and Iron counties additional
shras are beginning to pop up. Better forcing has been over the
eastern U.P. where the rain has been more persistent. As forcing
continue to wane this afternoon, precipitation coverage will become
less and less from west to east. Skies will then clear from west to
east tonight as the low moves across lower Michigan into Ontario by
Saturday morning. Still can`t tule out some patchy fog later tonight
especially where rain as been more persistent. Temperatures tonight
will fall into the 50s, perhaps a few upper 40s in the typically
interior west cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The active weather pattern continues through this weekend and at
least the first half of next week as a building high pressure over
the western U.S. directs multiple shortwaves towards us over the
next several days. The first of these shortwaves looks to be leaving
our neck-of-the-woods come tonight as it lifts from Lower Michigan
into southern Ontario. Given that the comma-head of the low will be
over us tonight, expect mainly light rain showers to dwindle from
the west to east with time tonight as the shortwave low moves
eastward with time. While there`s enough energy to maybe squeak out
a rumble of thunder or two, with the already weak sfc forcing
dwindling throughout the overnight hours, expect the convection to
be rather sporadic and light, especially given the decreasing energy
in the atmosphere once the sun sets. The last of the rainfall
associated with the shortwave looks to end over the far eastern U.P.
late tonight/early Saturday morning. Behind the rain showers, we
could see some fog develop across the area late tonight into early
Saturday morning (as seen on the latest run of the HREF). Therefore,
be on the watch out for rapidly reduced visibilities from time-to-
time if you`re traveling Saturday morning.

Weak high pressure ridging moves over us Saturday as the fog burns-
off during the mid morning hours. With the sfc high being based in
the Ohio River Valley/TN and being fairly weak at around 1014mb, the
subsidence over us may be weak enough to allow for late afternoon
garden-variety showers and thunderstorms to form over the interior
west. In addition, expect the temperatures to be quite a bit warmer
than what they are to be today, returning to generally the 70s
across the area (closer to 70 near Lake Superior and around 80 in
the interior west and south central). The convection dies out by
Saturday evening, but another shortwave low looks to bring
additional rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms back over
the area by Sunday, mainly during the afternoon when diurnal heating
becomes maximized.

Additional weak shortwave activity looks to continue diurnally-
induced convection over our area Monday, Tuesday, and possibly even
Wednesday. While we have some modest CAPE during the afternoon hours
those days, with the lack of shearing overtop of the region, only
garden-variety showers and thunderstorms are expected. Temperatures
look to be near normal for this time of year this weekend through
next week, and the medium range guidance hints at us possibly drying
out for the latter half of next week as the high pressure over the
western U.S. slowly shifts east into our neck-of-the-woods and sets
up shop over the Upper Midwest by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Low pressure tracking eastward from WI into Lower MI will keep at
least a chance for a few shras around across the Central UP through
the afternoon but coverage will continue to wane. Expect mainly VFR
cigs at all 3 TAF sites, however there will be a few hour window
this afternoon where upsloping into KSAW and KIWD may produce some
brief MVFR ceilings. Skies clear from the west by this evening which
may yield some patchy fog by morning at KIWD and KSAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less will continue across Lake Superior
this weekend through next week as a cycle of weak shortwave lows
followed by weak ridging continues across the Upper Great Lakes as
high pressure continues to build over the western half of the U.S..
That being said, a few of the disturbances will be strong enough to
produce some thunderstorms across the lake from time-to-time over
the next several days, mainly along the nearshores today into this
evening and again each day during the daylight hours Sunday through
at least next Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...TAP