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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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120 FXUS63 KMQT 050804 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 404 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers today. A 40-60% chance of some areas across the south receiving over an inch of rainfall. -Mainly dry Saturday, but a rain shower cannot be entirely ruled out in the interior west late in the afternoon. -Sunday through Wednesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in the afternoons. -Dry period could begin Thursday and continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 341 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined shortwave/mid-level low over eastern MN/western WI. Ahead of the mid- level dry slot lifting around e side of the circulation, a band of shra extends from ne WI wnw into MN, aided by isentropic ascent, especially over ne WI. These shra have spread across the MI/WI stateline recently with new development also occurring in s central Upper MI ahead of the main band of shra. Current temps range thru the 50s with some lwr 60s F s central. Mid-level low will drift e today with deep layer forcing per q- vectors strongest during the morning thru early to mid-aftn. With more persistent isentropic ascent focused into the central and eastern fcst area, expect the more persistent/heavier pcpn over that area, but especially s central/se where isentropic ascent is generally best focused this morning. The nw fcst area, Keweenaw in particular, may not see any shra today. Beyond mid-aftn, forcing weakens, and models all show a corresponding decrease in coverage/intensity of pcpn at that time. Precipitable water is running about 130-140pct of normal with the pcpn today, so not unusually high to support excessive rainfall. However, given the persistence of the shra, local amounts of an inch or two are possible. 00z HREF has the probability of exceeding 1 inch at 40- 60pct, but exceeding 2 inches at no more than around 20pct. At least to this point, KMQT radar has only showed some of the shra having small cores with instantaneous rainfall rate estimates of 1-3 inches/hr. There is some instability noted for non sfc-based parcels, and with mid-level dry slot advecting toward the area, can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder today across the southern fcst area. So far, GOES GLM has only detected a few lightning flashes either side of the MI/WI stateline. Clouds/shra will hold temps down today with highs ranging thru the 60s F. Will be coolest across the central, especially n central, due to ne winds off of the lake. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The active weather pattern continues through this weekend and at least the first half of next week as a building high pressure over the western U.S. directs multiple shortwaves towards us over the next several days. The first of these shortwaves looks to be leaving our neck-of-the-woods come tonight as it lifts from Lower Michigan into southern Ontario. Given that the comma-head of the low will be over us tonight, expect mainly light rain showers to dwindle from the west to east with time tonight as the shortwave low moves eastward with time. While there`s enough energy to maybe squeak out a rumble of thunder or two, with the already weak sfc forcing dwindling throughout the overnight hours, expect the convection to be rather sporadic and light, especially given the decreasing energy in the atmosphere once the sun sets. The last of the rainfall associated with the shortwave looks to end over the far eastern U.P. late tonight/early Saturday morning. Behind the rain showers, we could see some fog develop across the area late tonight into early Saturday morning (as seen on the latest run of the HREF). Therefore, be on the watch out for rapidly reduced visibilities from time-to- time if you`re traveling Saturday morning. Weak high pressure ridging moves over us Saturday as the fog burns- off during the mid morning hours. With the sfc high being based in the Ohio River Valley/TN and being fairly weak at around 1014mb, the subsidence over us may be weak enough to allow for late afternoon garden-variety showers and thunderstorms to form over the interior west. In addition, expect the temperatures to be quite a bit warmer than what they are to be today, returning to generally the 70s across the area (closer to 70 near Lake Superior and around 80 in the interior west and south central). The convection dies out by Saturday evening, but another shortwave low looks to bring additional rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms back over the area by Sunday, mainly during the afternoon when diurnal heating becomes maximized. Additional weak shortwave activity looks to continue diurnally- induced convection over our area Monday, Tuesday, and possibly even Wednesday. While we have some modest CAPE during the afternoon hours those days, with the lack of shearing overtop of the region, only garden-variety showers and thunderstorms are expected. Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year this weekend through next week, and the medium range guidance hints at us possibly drying out for the latter half of next week as the high pressure over the western U.S. slowly shifts east into our neck-of-the-woods and sets up shop over the Upper Midwest by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 112 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions in place to start the 06Z TAF cycle. A surge of moisture and rain showers should impact at least IWD/SAW overnight into the morning, with cigs falling to MVFR and IFR. CMX looks to be on the edge of the rainfall so VFR was maintained with this cycle, although confidence on placement of precipitation is fairly low. An embedded TS cannot be ruled out at IWD roughly 08-14Z and SAW 10-16Z, but coverage too low for inclusion in the TAFs. Gradual improvement in cigs expected through the day, but IFR conditions may hang on at SAW until early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less will continue across Lake Superior this weekend through next week as a cycle of weak shortwave lows followed by weak ridging continues across the Upper Great Lakes as high pressure continues to build over the western half of the U.S.. That being said, a few of the disturbances will be strong enough to produce some thunderstorms across the lake from time-to-time over the next several days, mainly along the nearshores today into this evening and again each day during the daylight hours Sunday through at least next Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Thompson MARINE...TAP