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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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448 FXUS63 KMPX 201158 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 658 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of isolated showers & thunderstorms continue through this weekend. Slow-moving storms mean localized rainfall nearing an inch. - Diurnally-driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely through midweek, with the best chances for widespread rain coming Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Current surface observations showing multiple sites reporting areas of fog early this morning. Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 60s with calm winds. Areas of fog are expected to mix out by mid-morning. As for today`s forecast, a slow moving lobe of vorticity aloft coupled with a surface low that will advance across southwestern MN. Enough support is in place this morning to generate a few isolated showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder given ~300 J/kg of MUCAPE in RAP forecast soundings. The more favorable environment for this morning`s rainfall is across the I-90 corridor. However, the western periphery of a cold front is currently draped over NE MN and N WI. this frontal boundary is progged to sag southward over the upper Great Lakes region this evening. As this occurs, the lob of remnant vorticity may encourage redevelopment for convection across much of MN and western WI this afternoon and evening. Sunday looks to be a repeat of today in terms of precip potential given QPF still looking to range between a couple of tenths to a half inch with a few isolated ares across southern MN exceeding a half inch. In summary, it will be best to consider bringing the umbrella if you have outdoor activities planned. By the beginning of next week, the cold front departs to our west however a stagnant summertime airmass will remain in place. This will allow for daily isolated chances of shower and thunderstorms each afternoon through midweek. Tuesday into Wednesday continue to look favorable for more likely bouts of rain. Timing for this shortwave will be key with regards to storm intensity. Should the system move through earlier in the afternoon or evening, heavier rainfall and strong thunderstorms will grow increasingly possible. Temperatures for the week trend gradually upward into the low to mid 80s by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Tricky set of TAFs due to low confidence of afternoon convection and the potential for IFR-or-worse fog prior to daybreak Sunday morning. Short-term models have done a poor job of initializing precipitation this morning and also have poor agreement on the evolution of any convection this afternoon-evening. While there is some potential for TSRA this afternoon, which leads to no more than a PROB30 mention, confidence is low on the placement of TSRA other than broadly saying central-southern MN into far western WI. Have brought conditions down to MVFR with any convection otherwise mainly VFR conditions with light winds will prevail. Overnight, plenty of low level moisture with calm winds will be conducive to fog development prior to daybreak, possibly under 1SM in spots. KMSP...Kept small chances for TSRA going for mainly the 20z-23z timeframe, although SHRA could be possible before that. MVFR conditions are the most likely with any precipitation but IFR is possible. Fog overnight still looks to impact MSP prior to sunrise and last through the morning push, with MVFR ceilings potentially lasting to midday. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA are possible Sunday afternoon so this may be addressed in later TAFs. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind W to NW 5 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC