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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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267 FXUS63 KMPX 070834 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for the next few days. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with decent chances at the year`s first 90 at MSP next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated early this morning, with the exception across southeastern MN and parts of western WI. This latest round is a result of an MCV near Lake Mille Lacs which continues northeast toward DLH. Water vapor imagery shows numerous such disturbances littering the northern and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada, within a broad long wave trough. These disturbances will be the foci for mostly diurnally-driven scattered convection through midweek, with nothing looking particularly widespread or heavy. CAMs and global guidance highlight areas in western MN and western WI as the locations with the most widespread activity this afternoon. It is in these areas greater instability will develop, with a minimum across eastern and south central MN. A couple stronger storms are possible across southeast MN and western WI where 25 kts of bulk shear could help organization. Otherwise, activity should wane gradually following sunset this evening. Cyclonic flow continues Monday, Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday due to the remnants of TC Beryl tracking northeast into the Great Lakes. Each afternoon will feature about 500 J/kg CAPE and 20 kts of shear or less, leading to disorganized convection likely forming near weak disturbances or outflow boundaries. Isolated to scattered coverage of storms can be expected. Beyond Wednesday, ridging will finally build east from the West Coast. A broad area of ridging will span the CONUS, with no real discernible center. An active pattern will continue across Canada, so it`s possible there may be occasional intrusions of cooler air from the north if weaknesses in the ridge develop. That would also lead to thunderstorm chances, although extended model guidance are trending drier on QPF. Highs well into the 80s, and possibly low 90s, will become common next weekend and early the following week. Dew points may also increase into the 70s which would limit cooling at night and lead to increased HeatRisk. After a cool, wet summer so far, the pattern finally appears to be changing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 -RA is likely to begin the period from MKT to STC spreading eastwards over the first few hours. Visibility should remain above 4SM generally, with thunder limited to the southern end of the line which should stay clear of all sites with the exception of EAU if the storms stay together over the next few hours, which is not expected. A brief period of MVFR is possible as the showers move through, but generally low VFR vis/CIGS are expected. CIGS lift by the afternoon with another chance at isolated -SHRA after roughly 20z, however lower confidence than the last few days with only diurnal heating for forcing. KMSP...Left out any mention of -SHRA or -TSRA for the afternoon as confidence is too low to include even a prob30 for now. The better environment looks west of the Twin Cities, favoring RWF/AXN. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts. TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...TDH