685
FXUS63 KMPX 070523
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early
  evening is expected to remain sub-severe.

- Chances for daytime heating driven showers and storms
  continue for the next few days. Temperatures gradually warm
  throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Current satellite imagery depicts a typical summer afternoon with
plenty of cumulus clouds scattered across the region. As we continue
to heat through the afternoon, the atmosphere will mix and isolated
to scattered showers and storms will result. Some scattered showers
are already present in southwestern Minnesota, but remain pulse-like
due to a lack of deep layer shear. CAMs are showing a similar story,
with scattered pop-up showers and storms through the early evening,
particularly for western Minnesota. As a result of the pulse-like
nature and lack of shear, severe storms are not expected with
today`s activity. However, a few higher performing cells could
produce small hail and/or up to an inch of rain. In all
likelihood, most will get less than a quarter of an inch. After
sundown, storms will transition to more shower-y in nature as a
shortwave disturbance moves overhead. This could result in an
additional few tenths of liquid, but nothing too impactful.

Sunday will be similar to today, with isolated pop-up showers and
storms possible in the afternoon. The biggest difference between
today and tomorrow is location, with tomorrow`s rain chances
favoring western Wisconsin. Temperatures will remain fairly steady
through the early week, with highs around 80. Winds will also be
steady from the west/northwest and light in magnitude. Diurnally
driven showers remain possible Tuesday and Wednesday in western
Wisconsin. Overall, a rather benign weather pattern will couple up
with the light winds and seasonable temperatures giving way to a
pleasant week weather-wise.

The thermometer will trend upwards by late week as winds go
southerly and the atmosphere heats up. Upper 80s and potentially low
90s are possible by the weekend. This aligns well with our
climatologically warmest period of the year, with the high end of
the normal temperature range reaching 84 degrees (for MSP) July 8th
through 23rd. While climatological normal high temperatures will
begin to go down on July 24th, the Climate Prediction Center
forecast is favoring above normal temperatures July 12th through
August 2nd. Ensembles support this trend for the end of the
month, with the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC all having consecutive
days in the 90s beginning mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

-RA is likely to begin the period from MKT to STC spreading
 eastwards over the first few hours. Visibility should remain
 above 4SM generally, with thunder limited to the southern end
 of the line which should stay clear of all sites with the
 exception of EAU if the storms stay together over the next few
 hours, which is not expected. A brief period of MVFR is
 possible as the showers move through, but generally low VFR
 vis/CIGS are expected. CIGS lift by the afternoon with another
 chance at isolated -SHRA after roughly 20z, however lower
 confidence than the last few days with only diurnal heating for
 forcing.

KMSP...Left out any mention of -SHRA or -TSRA for the afternoon
as confidence is too low to include even a prob30 for now. The
better environment looks west of the Twin Cities, favoring
RWF/AXN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...TDH