587
FXUS64 KMOB 012111
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through
this evening. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern
aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this
ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will continue
to result in light, variable winds. A weak frontal boundary has been
sinking toward the coast this afternoon resulting in slight rain
chances near the coast. A heat advisory remains in effect today
through 7PM for heat index values around 110 for all but the far
northwestern counties. The frontal boundary lifts back north on
Tuesday returning higher rain chances to inland areas. Highs on
Tuesday will range from the low to mid 90s in the eastern third of
the CWA and mid to upper 90s in the western 2/3 approaching 100 in
some locations on the western border. Another heat advisory is
likely for western areas on Tuesday. [Schlotz/LIX]

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent. Looking
aloft, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Tennessee River
Valley at the start of the period will gradually shift east
through the week, reaching the western Atlantic by Sunday. At the
surface, high pressure centered over the area, it is safe to
assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze circulation will
likely be the driving force each day. This will help to initiate
isolated to scattered showers and storms each morning along our
coastal counties and our local marine zones. As the seabreeze
marches inland during the afternoon, scattered pulse- type
thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally around 30
to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical summertime
convection, although severe storms are generally not expected,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be
possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop.
Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity of the
ridge. Given slight movement of the high pressure through the
period, apparent temperatures will hover around the 108 degree
threshold and a Heat Advisory will be likely for some portion of
the area each day. Lows will not provide much relief, further
exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area...
temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper
70s, with low 80s along the coast. So, long story short, The heat
and humidity will persist through the period. Daily heat indices
will generally peak in the 105-110F range. Accordingly, heat
advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the
area through much of the next week. The one exception may be
Wednesday with temperatures a couple of degrees lower owing to a
slightly stronger southerly, onshore flow on the western side of
the retreating surface high.

An upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southeast U.S.
during the second half of the week. At the surface, high pressure
will gradually shift off the East Coast with weak ridging extend
southwestward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern
will keep organized disturbances, both tropical waves and mid-
latitude shortwave troughs, from entering our domain. However,
diurnally-driven showers and storms can still be expected each day
with convection sea/landbreeze circulations providing a local focus
for convection. Undercut the NBM PoPs, especially for Wednesday and
Thursday as 60-70 percent coverage in the afternoon seemed a bit
high with the absence of any deeper lift underneath the upper ridge.

The upper ridge starts to break down late this weekend into early
next week as a longwave trough approaches from the central CONUS.
While the area will remain well south of any synoptic cold front
that is associated with this system, mid-level height falls and weak
disturbances rotating around the base of the trough will aid in
thunderstorm development late in the period.

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for Wednesday and the
4th of July holiday, however, as the previous shift mentioned,
the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially
into the post- holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of
long period swell reaching our local beaches in association with
Beryl as it enters the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will
monitor this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and
wave run-up issues, over the coming days. [13; Schlotz,
Klein/LIX]



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. [13; Schlotz/LIX]



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  77  90  75  92  76  95 /  10  50  20  50  10  40  10  40
Pensacola   79  90  79  89  77  91  78  92 /  20  50  20  50  10  50  10  40
Destin      81  90  80  89  80  91  79  92 /  30  50  40  40  10  40  10  40
Evergreen   73  95  74  92  73  94  74  96 /  10  40  20  60  10  50  10  50
Waynesboro  71  99  74  93  73  95  74  97 /   0  30  10  50   0  40  10  40
Camden      71  94  74  92  73  94  74  95 /   0  30  10  40  10  40  10  50
Crestview   76  93  74  91  73  94  74  96 /  20  60  30  60  10  50  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-261>266.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>203.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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