813
FXUS64 KMOB 192051
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Our synoptic pattern remains unchanged with upper troughing draped
across the northeastern to south-central CONUS while a surface
front remains situated across the deep south. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms from this morning gradually are waning
across coastal counties early this afternoon. Renewed convection
is expected inland this afternoon in addition to a more pronounced
batch of showers and storms associated with an upper level
shortwave that will move in to the forecast area from the west
into mid afternoon. Expect widespread showers and storms through
late afternoon and early evening, with potential for heavy rain,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning in any storms. Any areas that
can receive training of showers and storms may see an isolated
chance for flash flooding of low lying and/or urban areas. High
temperatures will be held in check for much of the forecast area
today in the lower to middle 80`s.

Tonight will feature generally isolated to scattered showers and
storms, more focused towards the coast and marine waters. Similar
to today, expect a quick uptrend in convection during the late
overnight hours which should move onshore prior to daybreak across
coastal counties of AL/FL. While it appears the day Saturday will
be a stormy one, it shouldn`t be quite as widespread in terms of
coverage by the late morning into afternoon/evening hours without
the presence of a more pronounced shortwave like we had for
Friday. This should mean temperatures can warm a bit more into the
afternoon and the expectation is for highs to reach the middle to
upper 80`s for most spots. Friday night and Saturday night should
see lows bottom out in the lower to middle 70`s. A LOW risk of
rip currents remains in place through the weekend. MM/25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

We will remain in a stagnant upper air pattern as an upper trough
extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains remains
nearly stationary between two book-end upper ridges. The local
area maintains southwesterly flow aloft throughout the week,
keeping moisture levels high over the Southeast (precipitable h20
levels above 2"). Some of the guidance indicates the possibility
of a weak inverted trough drifting around the southern periphery
of ridge and sliding into the eastern Gulf early in the week with
another one potentially late in the week. Meanwhile, a weak
surface ridge extending from the Atlantic westward along the
northern Gulf Coast will remain largely intact through next week,
keeping the area under a light southerly surface flow.

Expect a typical diurnal pattern in convection with showers and
storms flaring up along the coast/nearshore waters after midnight
and re-development each afternoon across inland communities. The
blended guidance for POPs was far too high throughout much of next
week, so again we cut the POPs down significantly each afternoon
to more reasonable values (albeit still higher than what we
traditionally see in the summer months). Can`t rule out strong to
potentially severe pulse-type storms each afternoon (typical
summertime storms) with gusty winds and frequent lightning being
the main threat. That said, the predominant threat in afternoon
storms will be the potential for nuisance/minor flooding as storms
will be efficient rainmakers, so any storms that train over the
same locations could quickly overwhelm soils and lead to flooding,
and will need to monitor.

High temperatures and dewpoints will be tempered somewhat by the
afternoon storms and cloud cover, which will also temper the heat
indices and potential for heat stress. Heat indices look to stay
below Advisory criteria throughout the period.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week.
The rip current MOS probabilities are hovering near MODERATE for the
Florida panhandle peaches on Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall
the probabilities have trended downward on recent runs. 07/mb /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Conditions will
also remain favorable for waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours
along possible land breeze boundaries just offshore, but a
waterspout could be possible at just about any time of the day.
DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  87  75  89  74  87  73  89 /  70  70  60  70  50  70  30  70
Pensacola   77  87  79  89  77  89  77  90 /  80  80  70  80  40  70  20  60
Destin      81  86  81  89  80  89  79  90 /  70  90  70  70  20  70  20  60
Evergreen   72  87  72  89  71  88  71  90 /  50  70  50  80  20  60  40  70
Waynesboro  72  87  73  89  70  88  71  89 /  60  70  40  80  40  70  50  80
Camden      72  87  73  87  70  86  70  87 /  60  70  40  80  30  60  50  70
Crestview   74  87  75  91  73  91  73  92 /  60  70  50  80  20  70  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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