833
FXUS64 KMOB 201745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
through the afternoon hours across the local area, helping to
bring brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings to MVFR or
IFR. Outside of storms, VFR conditions should generally prevail.
Rain chances are expected to decrease during the evening hours,
however convection should redevelop once again near the coast
during the overnight hours and through Sunday morning. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Our overall synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged
through the near term period, with upper troughing draped across the
south-central CONUS, and upper ridging building west across the Gulf
coast region from high pressure centered out over the Atlantic by
Sunday.  A surface front will remain situated across portions of the
Deep South through Sunday as well, generally extending from the
Tennessee Valley region southwest across parts of central and
northern Mississippi. While there will continue to be a fairly good
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, it appears that
coverage should not be quite as widespread as the past several days
due to less weak shortwave energy aloft and the fact that slight
upper ridging will begin to poke into our area from the east. Still
expecting a mostly diurnal pattern, with showers and storms
diminishing across the entire area during the evening hours and then
re-firing near the coast and just offshore during the late night and
early morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sunday
should be similar to Saturday, starting off in the morning hours
near the coast and becoming a little more numerous with best
coverage over inland areas during the afternoon hours. As has been
the case over the past few days, showers and storms will be somewhat
"hit or miss" across the region both Saturday and Sunday, with
scattered to locally numerous coverage each day.  No one particular
location will be looking at a prolonged period of rainfall. Some
brief heavy rainfall could be possible in some locations though, and
a few of the storms could produce some strong gusty winds during the
late afternoon hours each day.

Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with locations that may see a little more rainfall only in the
mid 80s.  Lows Saturday night mainly in the lower to middle 70s over
interior locations, with upper 70s closer to the coast and even some
lower 80s at the beaches and along the barrier islands. DS/12



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  89  73  89  74  89  74  88 /  50  80  50  70  40  70  40  70
Pensacola   77  89  77  89  78  90  77  89 /  50  70  50  60  40  60  50  70
Destin      79  89  79  90  79  90  79  89 /  60  70  50  60  40  60  40  60
Evergreen   72  88  71  89  71  89  71  88 /  50  70  40  70  30  70  30  70
Waynesboro  72  90  70  89  71  88  71  88 /  50  70  30  70  40  70  30  70
Camden      71  86  70  88  70  87  71  87 /  60  70  40  70  40  70  30  70
Crestview   73  90  72  91  73  92  73  90 /  50  80  40  60  30  70  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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