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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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799 FXUS64 KMOB 171755 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across the region through the next 24 hours. The current convection will continue to expand in coverage this afternoon to become scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been fairly consistent with TSRA impacting KMOB and KBFM between 20z and 23z, so kept a 3 hour TEMPO group at both sites. Convection may stay just north of KPNS, but as a precaution, added a 2 hour TEMPO group between 22z and 24z. Local drops to low end MVFR/IFR levels with the stronger storms, along with locally gusty winds should occur across the entire region. KJKA should remain free of storms, but there could be a stray shower. Convection should diminish in coverage after sunset. Light winds will become S/SW 5-10 knots this afternoon into early evening. /22 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 An upper level trough will continue to deepen over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwestern states today and eventually into the Mid- Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions late this afternoon into tonight. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place across our forecast area with precipitable water values generally averaging between 1.8-2.2 inches, so the unsettled weather pattern will persist across our region. We are already seeing a few showers and thunderstorms developing along the MS/AL/western FL panhandle coast as of 330 AM CDT and expect convection to remain confined near the coast for the most part through around sunrise before scattered to numerous showers and storms once again develop further inland across the remainder of the area later this morning and especially through this afternoon. The weakly sheared and moderately unstable environment will continue to favor a few stronger pulse type storms today, a few of which will be capable of producing strong and gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Scattered showers and storms may linger into the early to mid evening hours before diminishing in coverage late. The upper level trough will continue to amplify over the eastern CONUS into Thursday, with much of our region located along the base of this feature. A surface front will also edge southward toward northern portions of our forecast area by Thursday afternoon. Precipitable water values will become further enhanced up to around 2.25" along the frontal zone, so we do expect increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms going into Thursday afternoon. We kept POPs very high between 80-90 percent over most areas (70 percent along the coast). Some storms could be slow moving and produce heavy rainfall which could result in localized flooding of low lying areas Thursday. Otherwise, hot temperatures are expected again today with actual highs reaching into the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90 degrees along the coast. High dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will continue to promote maximum heat index values of 105-110 degrees across much of southeast MS and southwest AL, as well as portions of the western FL panhandle today, so we will leave the Heat Advisory configuration intact from 10 AM to 7 PM today. Increased cloud cover and convective coverage may promote slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday, but maximum readings still look to reach around 90 to the lower 90s over most areas prior to convective development. Heat indices generally average just below advisory criteria on Thursday, generally between 102-107 and given the higher rain chances during the afternoon, we may be able to avoid advisory issuance, but will let today`s day shift take another look. The rip current risk remains low for the next several days. /21 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Guidance continues to advertise an upper ridge stretching west over the northeastern Gulf coast, with a deep upper trough over the Mississippi River. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf becomes a bit better organized through the weekend into the coming week. The steady southerly flow keeps moisture levels high over the Southeast (precipitable h20 levels above 2"). Through the weekend into the coming week, it is pretty much the same story/different day. Showers and thunderstorms initiate south of the northern Gulf coast in the overnight hours into the hours after sunrise, then there is a short lull in the morning with convection again firing over inland areas of the Southeast. For the forecast area, a few storms may become strong to marginally severe, though modest instability keeps the risk low. There continues to be a risk of water issues, with the scattered to numerous daytime coverage of efficient rainers. The forecast area can handle more rain this time of the year due to the summer time growth, but if a locality sees several training cells, there may be ponding to low end flooding issues. Will need to monitor. With average upper level heights (and modest upper subsidence) combined with daily rain, temperatures around to below seasonal are expected through the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through Tuesday, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast. Heat indices remain well below advisory criteria, topping out in the 95 to 102 degree range each day. /16 && MARINE... Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A light to occasionally moderate mainly southwesterly flow is expected into Friday, becoming southerly late in the week. There is a chance of thunderstorms each day with favorable conditions for waterspouts in the mornings. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 74 88 74 89 74 89 / 30 80 70 100 60 90 50 90 Pensacola 78 91 77 87 77 89 77 89 / 30 70 70 90 70 90 60 90 Destin 80 90 79 88 79 89 79 89 / 30 80 70 90 70 90 50 90 Evergreen 73 92 72 87 71 89 71 88 / 30 90 70 90 60 90 40 90 Waynesboro 73 93 71 86 70 89 70 88 / 40 90 70 90 50 80 40 90 Camden 72 91 71 86 70 87 70 87 / 30 90 70 90 50 90 40 90 Crestview 74 93 73 89 73 91 72 92 / 30 80 60 100 60 90 40 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob