![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
108 FXUS64 KMOB 060924 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The rest of this weekend appears to be a rinse and repeat of what has happened the past couple days. An active Summer time pattern persists with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. A stalled boundary over the forecast area will once again serve as our primary mechanism for storm development, with primary hazards from storms being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. PWATs remain very high in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range today and tomorrow, meaning storms will likely be very heavy rain producers with potential for localized flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas possible in any locations that see training storms. Outside of storms the heat is on again this afternoon. Temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90`s coupled with high dewpoints in the middle to upper 70`s inland and lower 80`s nearer the coast will support another day of heat index values exceeding 105 to 110 degrees. A heat advisory goes into effect this morning, lasting through the late afternoon for much of southwestern Alabama into the Florida panhandle. In southeastern Mississippi, storm and cloud coverage should remain sufficient to keep temperatures slightly cooler, and likewise heat index values of 100 to 105 are expected in those areas. It is possible we hit heat advisory criteria again on Sunday, however extent of storm coverage may keep temperatures down enough to keep heat index values in the 100 to 107 range. If confidence increases on warmer high temperatures and/or lesser storm coverage, a heat advisory could be needed for a large portion of the forecast area. Our beach hazards continue as we move through the rest of the weekend. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through Sunday night. The anticipated swell packet associated with now Tropical Storm Beryl arrived late yesterday afternoon resulting in a rapid and significant uptick in the presence of strong rip currents at AL/FL beaches. The swell period should gradually diminish, however anticipate a continued threat for strong rip currents through at least Sunday morning/afternoon, gradually waning into the evening and night time hours. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for all of the AL/FL panhandle coast where minor flooding associated with wave run-up due to the swell may occur. This is particularly the case in our more vulnerable areas such as the west end of Dauphin Island and the Fort Pickens area. MM/25 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There will be little change to the overall weather pattern late this weekend into the middle part of next week. Upper level ridging will continue to nose westward from the western Atlantic through the north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain entrenched over our forecast area underneath the ridge axis each day, with precipitable water values generally continuing to average between 1.75 and 2.25 inches. We expect the typical diurnal pattern to continue each day through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms initially developing near the coast early each morning before increasing in coverage across the forecast area during the day within the moist and unstable environment. Convective coverage should become numerous each afternoon with POPs trending in excess of 60 percent. Upper level ridging may tend to strengthen somewhat over our region by the latter part of the week with a slight increase in height rises noted in the operational GFS and ECMWF guidance. We still anticipate at least scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as usual each day through Friday as plentiful deep layer moisture remains in place across our region, though POPs do trend downward slightly (40-50 percent coverage) Thursday and Friday. Temperatures remain near to slightly above average each day, with highs generally ranging from around 90 degrees to the mid 90s Monday through Wednesday and mostly in the lower to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index values continue to range at least between 102-107 degrees through much of the extended period, and up to around 110 degrees at times over some locations, so Heat Advisory issuances may be needed. /21 && .MARINE... Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A light southerly flow continues through the rest of the weekend as larger period swell from Beryl persists in the marine waters. Increased waves from Beryl will arrive by the beginning of next week and onshore winds will gradually become more westerly by mid-week. BB/03 MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 77 93 76 92 77 90 76 / 70 40 60 20 60 40 70 40 Pensacola 92 80 90 79 91 80 90 79 / 70 30 60 30 60 40 70 40 Destin 91 81 88 80 90 81 90 80 / 70 30 60 30 60 40 70 40 Evergreen 93 74 92 74 93 74 91 73 / 70 30 60 40 70 30 70 30 Waynesboro 93 74 93 73 95 74 91 73 / 60 30 60 30 60 30 80 30 Camden 93 74 92 74 93 73 92 73 / 60 30 60 40 70 30 70 30 Crestview 95 76 93 74 93 75 91 75 / 70 30 60 30 70 30 70 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob