221
FXUS64 KMOB 190718
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
218 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A surface front will continue to linger over the Deep South today
and lift slightly north to the Tennessee Valley region on Saturday.
This boundary will act as a low level focus for afternoon shower
and storm activity over inland areas, but coastal showers and
storms can be expected each night and early morning hours. Scattered
convection along the coast will become more numerous and develop
inland by mid to late morning and last through the afternoon and
early evening hours today. Coastal and offshore showers and storms
Friday night into early Saturday night will again develop inland
during the day on Saturday. Best coverage of rain will be in the
afternoon and early evening. Similar hazards can be expected with
storms each day, featuring heavy rainfall and flash flooding
concerns in urban and low-lying areas due to a generally slow
movement of storms, particularly in any locations that see notable
rainfall on the previous day. Either day can`t rule out a
stronger pulse-type storm or two with gusty winds. Highs Friday
will be cooler than yesterday due to expected increased cloud
cover, generally rising into the middle to upper 80s for all
locations. Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower
to middle 70s inland and upper 70s nearer the coast. Saturday high
temperatures very similar to Friday`s with highs mainly in the
mid to upper 80s. DS/12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The unsettled weather pattern continues into next week.

The upper level ridge over the western Atlantic maintains its grip
over the eastern Gulf and Southeast late in the weekend as a
shortwave trough pivots into the Plains. The local area maintains
southwesterly flow aloft through the work week as we remain
sandwiched between the ridge to our east and general troughiness to
our northwest. Some of the guidance indicates the possibility of a
weak inverted trough drifting around the southern periphery of ridge
and sliding into the eastern Gulf early in the week with another one
potentially late in the week. Down at the surface, the local area
remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with
southerly surface winds expected all week. Deep southerly flow will
continue to usher in rich, Gulf moisture with PWATs of 2+ inches
expected throughout the period.

In general, expect a typical diurnal pattern in convection with
showers and storms flaring up along the coast/nearshore waters after
midnight and re-development each afternoon across inland
communities. The blended guidance for POPs was far too high
throughout much of next week, so we cut the POPs down significantly
each afternoon to more reasonable values (albeit still higher than
what we traditionally see in the summer months). Can`t rule out
strong to potentially severe pulse-type storms each afternoon
(typical summertime storms) with gusty winds and frequent lightning
being the main threat. That said, the predominant threat in
afternoon storms will be the potential for nuisance/minor flooding
as storms will be efficient rainmakers, so any storms that train
over the same locations could quickly overwhelm soils and lead to
flooding.

High temperatures and dewpoints will be tempered somewhat by the
afternoon storms and cloud cover, which will also temper the heat
indices and potential for heat stress. Heat indices look to stay
below Advisory criteria throughout the period.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week.
The rip current MOS probabilities are hovering near MODERATE for the
Florida panhandle peaches on Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall
the probabilities have trended downward on recent runs. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Conditions will
also remain favorable for waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours
along possible land breeze boundaries just offshore, but a
waterspout could be possible at just about any time of the day.
DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  75  88  74  89  74  89  74 /  60  70  80  60  80  50  80  50
Pensacola   88  77  89  78  89  77  90  78 /  70  70  80  60  80  50  70  40
Destin      89  80  89  80  89  79  90  79 /  80  60  70  60  70  50  70  40
Evergreen   86  71  88  72  89  70  89  71 /  60  50  80  50  80  40  80  30
Waynesboro  86  70  88  71  89  70  88  70 /  80  70  80  60  80  40  80  50
Camden      86  70  86  71  87  69  88  70 /  60  50  70  60  70  40  70  50
Crestview   89  72  89  73  91  73  91  73 /  70  60  80  50  80  30  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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