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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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114 FXUS64 KMOB 132102 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Expect a rinse and repeat of today with maybe a little less coverage along the coast during the mid-morning hours. The weak upper trough that has been situated across the mid-south will continue to slowly weaken as high pressure builds westward across the northern Gulf. This will likely usher in slightly drier air aloft, but also keep us in our standard diurnal pattern. Expect the usual storms to develop along the landbreeze during the morning just offshore then slowly progress inland throughout the afternoon with the seabreeze. Given the drier air aloft storms may struggle to persist but if they can cluster up enough then some stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall may develop. The best rain chances during the afternoon appear to be west of I-65 closer to the periphery of the upper ridge and better moisture is located. Given the likely presence of the ridge, ample sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to possibly upper 90s across the area. In most locations inland, dewpoints will likely mix out leading to hot but not advisory criteria hot. However along the coast, there may be a period during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland where heat indices could reach advisory criteria. The only question mark is the potential for clouds and rain. For now we will hold off on a new heat advisory but if confidence increases in the potential for heat indices exceeding 108 then an advisory will be needed for tomorrow. BB/03 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 To close out the week, the global models and short range ensembles indicate a trough axis at high levels extending from the Mid- Atlantic coast to the eastern Gulf while an upper ridge is positioned over TX. Between the two pressure features is a high level northwest flow with a signal of deep layer dry air overspreading the area Friday night. The TX upper ridge slides eastward over the Gulf over the weekend. Larger scale sinking with the upper ridge and limited deep layer moisture with PWAT values at or less than 1.00" Saturday favors a rain-free day. Sunday, the deep layer moisture signal of PWAT does edge slightly higher to around 1.25". However, the presence of the deep layer ridge aloft would continue to support keeping a mention of PoPs out of the forecast. At the surface, a weakly defined pressure trough/front slips southward to the south of the coast Saturday and eventually dissipates Sunday. Daytime temperatures heating up with highs Saturday and Sunday lifting into the lower to mid 90s. Lower daytime RH Saturday favors heat indices staying close to the actual highs, but on Sunday, heat indices look to be approaching 100 to 103 in some areas as daytime humidity is slightly higher then. A decreasing tidal cycle and a weak pressure pattern, resulting in light winds, will keep the rip current risk at low levels through the weekend. /10 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The 06.12Z weather models indicate another southern stream impulse sliding eastward out of TX and with deep moisture modifying ahead of its approach supports a return chance of summer-time storms Monday. Upper trough slips eastward across the Lower MS River Valley into the middle of next week bringing a return to a more unsettled period with a chance of showers and storms. Very possible we will see convective systems which could bring some impacts dropping south and eastward over the local area middle of next week, but timing of these this far out is low confidence. Clouds and better rain chances would lend support on tapering back daily highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A weak westerly flow is expected through the weekend and into early next week. A typical diurnal seabreeze/landbreeze will provide a nearshore winds a more onshore/offshore component. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 95 77 94 76 93 75 93 / 20 60 20 60 20 60 20 60 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 78 92 78 92 / 10 50 20 50 20 60 30 60 Destin 81 92 80 92 80 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 50 30 50 30 50 Evergreen 74 97 74 95 73 94 73 92 / 20 60 20 60 20 60 30 60 Waynesboro 74 97 74 95 74 96 74 94 / 30 60 20 60 20 60 20 60 Camden 75 97 74 95 74 95 74 93 / 10 50 20 60 20 60 30 60 Crestview 75 97 74 95 74 95 73 94 / 20 50 20 70 20 70 20 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob