Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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419 FXUS64 KMOB 051900 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Mostly VFR to MVFR conditions across the area with scattered storms beginning to develop along the highway 84 corridor. Further storms are expected this afternoon along the I-10 corridor leading to temporary reductions in visibilities and gusty winds. Storms should subside before midnight as skies return to VFR. Winds will be light out of the south becoming variable overnight. BB/03 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 No significant changes were made to the overall forecast through Saturday. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the northern Gulf Coast region today and tonight before becoming centered more in the vicinity of southern Georgian and the northern Florida peninsula on Saturday. Moisture content will remain very high underneath the ridge axis through the near term period, with precipitable water values generally ranging between 2.2 and 2.5 inches. A few rain showers are already developing near the coast early this morning and expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage across our forecast area this morning and especially into the afternoon, when we have POPs increasing to between 60-70% over much of our region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon into early this evening given the combination of deep moisture and relatively slow storm motions. Some locations could easily pick up in excess of 2-3" of rain in a fairly short period of time, which could result in localized flooding. A weak surface front will move into our forecast area tonight and may remain oriented across our CWA through the day Saturday. Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms may persist into this evening as the boundary pushes into our region, with some additional localized heavy rainfall remaining possible. Storms may tend to diminish in coverage late tonight before showers and storms become numerous to widespread in coverage along the boundary again during the day Saturday. Heat concerns will continue through Saturday despite the wet/stormy pattern. Dewpoints will remain very high between 75-80 degrees through Saturday afternoon. High temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 90s and the high humidity will result in maximum heat index values between 105-110 degrees over much of the area both today and Saturday. We will keep the Heat Advisory in effect today and another may be needed on Saturday. However, the increased rain/ storm chances will help provide some relief from the heat. /21 BEACH HAZARDS... The rip current risk will start off LOW along area beaches this morning, but is still expected to ramp up considerably late this afternoon and especially by early this evening as long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives along area beaches. The latest guidance continues to trend just a little later with the arrival of the swell packet as compared to yesterday and now looks to reach our beaches by late this afternoon. The rip current risk will ramp up to MODERATE by later this afternoon and should become HIGH tonight through the weekend given the combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges through the weekend. The high period swell could result in localized salt water flooding and wave run up and associated beach erosion along our Gulf facing beaches late this afternoon through Saturday night (especially vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens). We will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in effect starting later this afternoon to highlight the potential for the normally vulnerable areas. SHORT and LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday Night) Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Weak upper ridging remains in place across the forecast area to round out the weekend before strengthening somewhat as we head into the early to middle part of next week. There remains no appreciable upper level features evident on forecast guidance, so we continue to expect your more typical Summer time weather with showers and storms offshore and/or along the immediate coast in the morning gradually spreading inland by late morning through early evening each day. Expect scattered to locally numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain very warm with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the lower to middle 90`s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage trends lower. Additionally, please refer to the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we move into the weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 93 78 92 78 92 78 93 / 50 80 30 60 30 60 30 70 Pensacola 78 91 79 92 79 92 80 92 / 40 70 40 70 40 70 30 70 Destin 80 90 81 92 80 91 81 91 / 30 70 40 70 40 60 30 60 Evergreen 73 93 73 93 73 92 73 93 / 60 80 30 70 40 70 20 60 Waynesboro 73 93 73 93 74 93 73 93 / 60 70 20 60 30 60 20 70 Camden 73 94 73 93 74 92 73 93 / 60 70 30 50 30 70 20 60 Crestview 75 93 76 94 76 92 75 94 / 50 80 30 70 40 70 20 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob