422
FXUS64 KMOB 150501
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A few lingering light rain showers over southeast MS and far
southwest AL late this evening will gradually dissipate around or
shortly after midnight. Another round of scattered convection
expected to develop again late Monday morning into Monday
afternoon. Expect visibility restrictions and reduced ceilings
near convection. VFR is otherwise expected to remain prevalent
outside of convection through the forecast period. /21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms will
slowly push/develop southeastward across portions of southeast MS
and far southwest AL for the next few hours. Will keep a close
watch on the KMOB/KBFM TAFs in particular for potential
development southward into Mobile County. For now have retained
VCTS mention through 03Z, but will monitor radar trends and amend
if necessary. Storms should diminish by late evening, with another
round of scattered convection expected to develop again late
Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Expect visibility
restrictions and reduced ceilings near convection. VFR is
otherwise expected to prevail. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough swinging into
the Lower Mississippi Valley with mid level ridging off the SE US
coast. Persistent southwesterly flow has allowed an abundance of
moisture to filter into the region, with PW values above the 90th
percentile for this time of year (>2.15 inches). Showers and
thunderstorms are developing over central Mississippi, along a
convergence axis and enhanced by shortwaves rotating around the
eastern periphery of the trough. Expect this activity to move into
our northern counties over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile,
isolated thunderstorms were developing along the seabreeze which has
lifted to near the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Outside of
thunderstorms, temperatures will continue to climb this afternoon,
warming into the mid 90 to upper 90s. Heat indices will reach 105 to
110 degrees and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 70s, except along the
coast where lows will remain in the upper 70s.

The upper level trough will remain over the region on Monday, with
several shortwaves moving through the area. This will keep a higher
confidence and coverage of thunderstorms over the area through the
day, with the best chances during the afternoon as the seabreeze
moves inland and provides a focus for convection. Temperatures will
be similar to those today, with highs warming into the lower to mid
90s once again. Heat indices will be in the 105 to 110 degree range
again on Monday. /73

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The initial trough moving through the area on Monday will gradually
weaken and flow aloft will briefly become zonal. Despite this, weak
shortwaves will continue to move through the region, bringing a
greater coverage for afternoon convection each afternoon. By
Wednesday, a trough over the Northern Plains will amplify as it
moves eastward, with a weak surface front trailing from its parent
low over the Great Lakes. The trough will move eastward through the
latter part of the week, sending the front eastward and into the
region by Thursday. Model consensus is decent enough to warrant
definite PoPs in for the latter half of the work week, when the
the trough begins to move through the area. Confidence on just how
far south the front makes it and the timing of it is low, so high
PoPs will continue into Saturday as well. Temperatures through
the period will be a tad cooler, given the lower heights, cloud
cover, and rain potential. Expect highs in the upper 80s and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light winds will follow a diurnal pattern into mid
week with onshore flow during the day and offshore flow at night.
Expect light southwesterly to westerly winds early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  76  93  76  94  76  92 /  30  70  10  70  10  60  30  80
Pensacola   77  92  79  92  79  92  78  91 /  20  50  20  60  20  60  40  80
Destin      80  92  81  91  80  91  80  90 /  30  40  20  60  20  60  30  70
Evergreen   73  94  74  94  74  94  73  92 /  30  60  20  70  10  70  30  80
Waynesboro  73  96  74  96  74  97  73  93 /  30  40  10  60  10  60  30  80
Camden      73  94  74  93  74  94  73  92 /  30  30  20  70  20  70  30  90
Crestview   74  95  74  95  74  94  74  94 /  30  60  10  70  10  70  20  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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