400
FXUS64 KMOB 151007
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
506 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An upper level ridge has moved over the northern Gulf coast, and is
expected to weaken a bit into mid week. A surface ridge over the
Gulf has become better organized, maintaining moisture levels over
2" forecast area-wide, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to 1.85".
Even with the strong upper subsidence from the upper ridge, the high
moisture levels will bring above seasonal rain chances. Guidance is
advertising PoPs in the scattered to numerous range today and
Tuesday. Am still expecting the upper subsidence to delay convection
firing until the afternoon over land areas, allowing temperatures to
rise to above seasonal norms. The current radar loop shows
boundaries forming over the northern Gulf, which should provide the
focus for convection forming over the Gulf before sunrise this
morning. With very good low level instability, weak wind shear and
several boundaries showing on radar, waterspouts are a possiblity
this morning. A few of the daytime storms may become strong to
marginally severe this afternoon, with MLCapes rising to around
2500J/kg and DCapes in the 600-800J/kg range in the guidance. Also,
with the high moisture levels, the thunderstorms will be efficient
rainers, with local ponding of water possible in poor drainage areas.

High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected along and north
of I-10, low 90s to near 90 south to the coast. Add in the high
moisture levels, heat indices are expected to top out above heat
advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for the
entire forecast area. Will likely need another one on Tuesday. Not
to forget, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the
mid to upper 70s.

A Low Risk of rip currents is expected this week, even as the tidal
range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason due to weak
Gulf flow. /16

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Slight upper ridging will continue over the region Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, but by late Wednesday an upper trough over
the Northern Plains will amplify as it moves eastward, with a weak
surface front dropping south into MS/AL area by early Thursday.
This surface front lingers over the southeast CONUS through the
weekend, while the deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS
gradually flattens out to our north by the end of the weekend.
With the surface boundary (as well as afternoon heating, seabreeze
interactions, and outflow boundary interactions) acting as daily
low level focuses combined with abundant low level moisture, we
will be looking at scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
each day. PoPs look to be highest Thursday and Friday, when
numerous showers and storms are expected when the troughing aloft
will be most pronounced. Continued hot through Thursday with
regard to afternoon max temps (climbing into the low to mid 90s)
and high dewpoints (in the mid 70s for most areas). This will
likely continue to result in heat indices greater than 108 degrees
over portions of the forecast area on Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as well, and Heat Advisory products will again most
likely be needed for at least portions of the forecast area on
those two days. With the increased rain chances and surface
frontal boundary dropping down into the Deep South and lingering
Friday through Sunday, somewhat cooler daytime temperatures are
expected, ranging from the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s. With this
heat indices also lower to the mid and upper 90s for most
locations, with a few locations around 100 degrees or just above,
so it looks like we will get a break from the heat related
products then. Overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 70s inland
and upper 70s to around 80 coastal Tuesday and Wednesday nights,
but cool somewhat Thursday night through Saturday night when they
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s up around the Highway
84 corridor to the mid 70s to near 80s closer to and along the
coast. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A general westerly component to winds are expected through
the forecast, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime offshore
component developing. Magnitude is expected to remain generally
light. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  76  92  76  93  76  92  74 /  70  20  70  10  70  30  80  70
Pensacola   91  78  90  79  92  78  92  77 /  70  30  70  20  70  40  70  70
Destin      90  80  89  81  91  80  90  79 /  70  40  70  20  60  50  70  50
Evergreen   94  73  93  74  94  73  92  72 /  70  30  70  10  70  40  80  60
Waynesboro  94  74  94  75  97  74  92  71 /  50  20  60  10  60  30  90  60
Camden      93  73  93  74  95  73  91  70 /  60  30  70  20  70  40  80  60
Crestview   94  75  93  74  95  74  93  73 /  70  30  70  10  70  30  70  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob