Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
145
FNUS72 KMLB 091049
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Bull Creek 71 & 18N...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
649 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon temperatures near 91 degrees will combine with high
humidity to produce heat index vales between 100-105 under mostly
cloudy skies. This level of heat can affect anyone without
adequate precautions. Predominately light west to southwest winds
are expected to result in sea breeze and boundary collisions
mainly to the east of I-4, as well as near and to the east of the
burn site this afternoon with chances near 70%. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms are
forecast to develop into this afternoon and evening near and to
the east of the burn site with a slow and erratic storm motion.
The main hazard with slow moving showers and storms will be
locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local amounts up to 4+") which
will have the potential to result in minor flooding of low-lying
areas and roadways. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists
for all of east central Florida for this reason. Additionally,
isolated stronger storms capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast this
afternoon. Rain and storm chances gradually diminish after sunset
and end by midnight. Light west to southwest winds are forecast to
back briefly south-southeast into the afternoon at 5-8kts.
Dispersion values will be Poor to Fair.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the morning, then showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL late in
the morning, then decreasing to 1700 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 9 mph increasing to 10 to 12 mph late
in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53 53 55 59 60 62 65 67 75 78
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3
Temp............76 80 84 86 88 88 88 88 89 86
RH..............98 88 79 74 71 67 67 66 63 69
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.6 7 8 10 10 12 13 13 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 2.3 1.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.3 5 6 8 7 8 9 12 10 12
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until
2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph shifting to the
southeast around 5 mph early in the evening,
then becoming light in the late evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
around 6 mph early in the evening, then
shifting to the northwest around 5 mph late in
the evening shifting to the south 5 to 6 mph in
the late evening and overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76 79 78 67 68 71 69 68 68 66 58 52
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
LAL.............3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............86 83 79 79 77 77 76 76 76 76 76 74
RH..............71 74 85 82 88 88 90 90 95 95 92 95
20 FT wind dir..N N SE S S S S SW S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3
20 FT wind gust.12 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NE NW S S S S S SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.9 8 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 6
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
late in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 7 mph.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54 57 58 68 64 62 64 63 63 66 66 68
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Temp............75 75 77 81 84 85 86 89 90 90 90 90
RH..............92 95 94 86 78 73 71 66 62 62 60 58
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.5 3 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
$$
Forecaster...Fehling
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417640.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com