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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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032 FXUS62 KMLB 171802 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR is forecast outside of storms. Scat`d showers/storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon/evening with the greatest chances (30-50%) along and west of I-4. VCTS begins between 18-20Z with TEMPO TSRA groups this afternoon/evening for inland sites and KDAB. E/SE winds at 5-10kts during the afternoon become light from the S/SE overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 GOES-16 ECONUS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR (PWAT ~ 1.25 INCHES) PUSHING ONTO THE TREASURE COAST AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL (20PCT) SOUTH OF A BREVARD-CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY LINE, WITH CHANCES 30-55PCT NORTHWEST THRU THE I-4 CORRIDOR. LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST INTENSITY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL PROMOTE ANY CONVECTION WE SEE LATER TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY DROP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SPOTS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THRU MID TO LATE EVENING WITH CLOUDS THINNING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH CONDITIONS HUMID. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE L-M90S WITH AFTERNOON PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-105F. THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN WELL-HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN THE M-U70S. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist through at least Sunday as an area of high pressure remains in place across the local Atlantic waters. Light and variable winds will become more southeasterly each afternoon as a result of the sea breeze, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots possible, especially closer to the coast. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today through Thursday, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours, with periods of mostly dry conditions during the daytime. Increasing moisture locally will lead to a greater chance for shower and storm development during the daytime hours from Friday through Sunday. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 94 77 94 / 10 40 10 50 MCO 76 96 77 96 / 20 50 10 60 MLB 77 91 77 91 / 10 50 10 50 VRB 76 92 76 93 / 10 50 10 50 LEE 77 95 78 95 / 20 50 20 60 SFB 76 96 77 96 / 10 50 10 60 ORL 77 96 78 96 / 20 50 10 60 FPR 76 91 76 92 / 10 50 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling