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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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007 FXUS62 KMLB 041727 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 127 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions prevail outside of afternoon-evening SH/TS. ECSB has pushed east of the coastal terminals, with just ISO SH INVOF KDAB and KTIX, which will push inland. ISO SH developing inland of the ECSB, and ISO-SCT SH to the north pushing south into ECFL, INVOF KLEE. Except coverage to increase southward through the rest of the afternoon, with TEMPOs for TS impacts at inland terminals starting 19Z-20Z and running through 22Z-23Z. A few TS/SH could linger as late as 02Z. With light surface flow winds remain VRB until the ECSB reaches the terminals, then becoming light again overnight. Rinse and repeat Thursday for the most part, with just a few small timing differences in TS/SH and the ECSB. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Early morning Cape sounding shows a pocket of drier air between 850-925mb with slightly lower precip water values of 1.88". This should produce a slower development of the cumulus cloud field until that drier pocket can get mixed out. GOES-16 PW product shows deeper moisture across our north/interior sections and this will be the focus for aftn/eve storms. Sfc analysis shows a very weak pressure gradient over the area supporting light and variable winds which will turn East behind the inland moving sea breeze. Did not need to make significant changes to the forecast for today. Agree that the lowest rain chances will be along the coast esp south of the Cape where isolated showers are possible thru early aftn. Convective initiation should occur across northern sections (Lake/Volusia) this afternoon with a north steering flow producing southward cell motions. So the highest PoPs (60%) are over the north/interior. Storm motion may occasionally be erratic due to propagation along sea, lake, outflow boundaries but generally should be toward the south. Heat Advisory will be in effect through the aftn for peak heat indices 105-110. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast, outside of daytime isolated/scattered showers and lightning storms. Light and variable winds persist through midday, increasing up to 10 kt and turning onshore with the sea breeze circulation this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft, perhaps up to 4 ft well offshore. Winds slacken and veer offshore tonight. Friday-Monday...Seas remain 2-4 ft thru the extended forecast. Winds turn out of the NNE Friday and Saturday mornings, veering onshore each afternoon and then offshore at night. Rain and lightning storm chances continue but decrease temporarily for the first half of the weekend. Southerly flow and increased moisture returns Sunday and Monday, helping to expand rain coverage into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 75 93 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 77 93 76 95 / 30 60 10 40 MLB 78 91 76 92 / 10 30 10 30 VRB 76 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 40 LEE 78 95 77 95 / 30 60 10 50 SFB 77 94 76 95 / 20 40 10 40 ORL 78 94 77 95 / 30 60 10 40 FPR 76 91 76 92 / 10 40 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Haley