537
FXUS62 KMLB 050056
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
856 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 819 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and storms ongoing, mainly in from LEE
southward. Activity is diminishing, should dissipate or move out
of the area over the next hour or two. Have included TEMPO for LEE
through 1Z. Otherwise, dry overnight with light and variable winds
at all terminals. Light winds will become northeast and increase
to 5-10KT by late morning, becoming easterly in the afternoon
behind the east coast sea breeze. VCTS for all inland terminals
and VCSH for all coastal terminals starting at 17Z. Activity
should diminish shortly after sundown. Winds will become light and
variable once again Friday night.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues
  through this holiday weekend. Residents and visitors will need
  to take extra precautions to prevent heat-related illness.

- Daily chances for showers and storms will be higher over
  interior sections, much lower along the coast Friday and
  Saturday. Storm coverage will increase early next week.

Thru tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
will continue to develop along the inland moving sea breeze. Late
morning Cape sounding shows H5 temps just -3.9C which is quite
warm and will suppress updrafts except where boundary collisions
occur which will result in a few stronger storms, capable of
intense rainfall and frequent lightning strikes. Storm motion will
be toward the south while the outflow and sea breeze propagate
westward. Storms over the interior are forecast to end around or
shortly after sunset and allow fireworks displays to go on with
little if any delay. Coastal communities will remain dry.

Friday-Sunday (previous)...The overall pattern goes largely
unchanged late week into the weekend, with mid level ridging
overhead and diurnal rain/storms driven by the east coast sea
breeze. One hindrance to higher PoPs, especially later Friday
through Saturday, will be a lobe of drier air that splits off from
a mid level low over the western Atlantic. This pocket of lower
moisture looks to stick around through Saturday, especially closer
to the coast, keeping the highest rain chances focused inland as
the sea breeze advances west each afternoon. Moisture return and
southerly flow begins to erode the lower PW on Sunday, helping to
reinvigorate rain and storm chances. Daytime temperatures stay hot
in the low to mid 90s with heat indices 102-107+. The warmest
locations will be inland, and additional heat advisories may need
to be considered this weekend into early next week. Nighttime lows
only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Wednesday (Previous)...Upper level ridging weakens a bit
next week but maintains its influence on our weather pattern. As a
tropical wave pushes west across the Carribean and Yucatan
Monday, relatively lower PWs wrap northward in its wake, across
southern FL and the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, near 2" PW hold
over north-central FL. Low-level flow over our area becomes more
southerly, perhaps even SSW, on Monday and Tuesday. As a result,
40-60 PoP was maintained in the extended period. Confidence lowers
somewhat by midweek in rain chances, so PoPs were kept in the
chance category Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance keeps highs in the
low to mid 90s through early week, with perhaps a slight downward
trend due to rain chances and associated cloud cover.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions this holiday weekend within
a weak pressure gradient environment supporting light and variable
winds, with the sea breeze enhancing the onshore flow each
afternoon at 8-10 knots. Seas 2-3 ft thru early next week. Rain
and lightning storm chances will be below normal through Saturday
then southerly flow and increased moisture returns Sunday and
Monday which will increase rain chances. Offshore flow is forecast
to develop by mid week with storms pushing offshore late in the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  75  93 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  77  93  76  95 /  30  60  10  40
MLB  78  91  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
VRB  76  91  75  92 /  10  30  10  40
LEE  78  95  77  95 /  50  60  10  50
SFB  77  94  76  95 /  20  40  10  40
ORL  78  94  77  95 /  30  60  10  40
FPR  76  91  76  92 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Kelly