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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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113 FXUS62 KMLB 021758 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The east coast sea breeze is observed moving inland of the coastal terminals. VCTS is ongoing from the MLB terminal southward with scattered convection focused to the west. Have kept a TSRA TEMPO at VRB through 19Z for MVFR VIS/CIG reductions in convection. VCTS beginning around 20/21Z at the inland terminals as the sea breeze passes. TSRA TEMPOs included at MCO/ISM/LEE late this afternoon and into the evening as a sea breeze collision occurs. South winds ahead of the sea breeze become east to southeast behind the boundary. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Motion of cloud elements seen on GOES-16 hi res visible satellite imagery nicely trace out the location of the low level ridge axis which extends from the Atlc across the northern Bahamas (Great Abaco/Grand Bahama) and westward across the Treasure coast/Lake Okeechobee. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed across south GA and into the Atlc and this boundary will gradually dissipate. The early morning Cape sounding shows considerable low level moisture which should produce an early cu field over land. The cloud lines over the Atlc are already bubbling with showers as they lift northward and this should transition to coastal sections shortly as the east coast sea breeze develops initially along the Treasure coast. The showers should develop into lightning storms early this afternoon just inland from the coast which will develop/propagate inland with the sea breeze. Some gusty outflows may push back to the coast and affect portions of the intracoastal waters. Focus for storms will shift inland during the afternoon with another late collision with the west coast sea breeze near Lake county around sunset. No significant changes/updates needed on winds/temps/pops for today. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today-Saturday... The surface high pressure axis will lift from near Central Florida today to the north of the local waters through at least early Friday. Light SSE winds (5-12 KT) turn more to the SE through mid and late week, as a result. The daily sea breeze circulation will locally enhance winds near the coast each afternoon before veering offshore and becoming light overnight. Seas 2 FT or less today, building slightly to 2-3 FT for the remainder of the week. A few showers and storms are forecast, especially during the overnight hours offshore and nearshore during the morning and early afternoon. However, a lot of dry weather is expected and overall favorable conditions will persist for both offshore and inshore boaters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 76 91 / 20 30 20 40 MCO 77 93 76 93 / 40 50 10 50 MLB 78 91 78 91 / 20 30 10 30 VRB 77 91 76 91 / 20 30 10 30 LEE 78 94 78 94 / 50 60 30 50 SFB 77 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 50 ORL 78 93 77 94 / 40 50 20 50 FPR 77 91 76 91 / 20 30 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Law