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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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556 FXUS62 KMLB 110211 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1011 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Lingering showers across the north (Volusia) and the south (St Lucie/Martin) will gradually diminish through midnight and a mostly cloudy night is on tap. Model guidance does show some showers redeveloping over Lake/Volusia counties toward sunrise that would press southward and may affect Orlando metro during the early/mid morning. Lightning and locally heavy rain will be possible which is unusual for so early in the day. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered rain and lightning storms through mid evening, capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall - Greater coverage of rain and storms Thursday and Friday, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out - Hot temperatures this weekend into next week with heat indices 100-107+ Thursday-Friday...A trough off of the southeast U.S. coast is expected to drift west, and a mid level low attempts to organize over the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Increased mid level support (20-25 kt 850mb winds), especially along the coast, will set the stage for greater coverage of showers and lightning storms Thursday afternoon. Surface flow remains rather light (10 mph or less) from the WSW on Thursday, which keeps the east coast sea breeze at bay. 60-70 PoP was included for much of the area, with perhaps the highest rain chances focused across the southern two- thirds of the forecast area as convection is generally steered toward the south. Locally heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, and instances of gusty wind are possible in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures are forecast to back down into the upper 80s to low 90s, due to the widespread cloud cover and rain chances. By Friday, temperatures warm a degree or two, reaching the low 90s in most locations. Some models and ensemble guidance suggest a push of comparatively "drier" air mixing in north of the Orlando area, which could affect PoPs there in future forecasts. Additionally, flow begins to back to the SSE, especially along the coast. For now, expected isolated to scattered coverage once again of showers and a few storms Friday afternoon, dissipating later in the evening. Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Onshore flow is expected to develop over the weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic and the state of Florida. NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles show upper level heights reaching an all-time maximum this weekend. Another heat wave is expected over the weekend and into next week as 500mb heights reach 594-597dm. The potential exists for heat indices 105-110 degrees from Sunday into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon with the greatest chance expected over the far western interior with boundary collisions expected mainly to the west of east central Florida through the weekend. Shower and storm chances increase slightly Monday and Tuesday with the pattern expected to become more favorable for boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflow over west-central Florida. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110 are forecast. Lows in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees are expected each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Mainly VFR conds outside of convective activity. SHRA/TSRA should diminish temporarily into the overnight but an increase in coverage is possible across northern terminals (DAB/LEE) before sunrise then widespread SHRA is then expected to increase late morning into the afternoon, with embedded thunderstorms. The highest chances look to be from Orlando southward. Surface winds will maintain a west component 5-10kts through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Tonight...The overall pattern of westerly flow continues, with winds increasing up to 10-15 kt offshore. Seas remain 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of heavy showers and lightning storms. The greatest chance for rain and storms will retreat to the offshore waters overnight, gradually expanding westward by daybreak Thursday. Thursday-Sunday (modified previous)...Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening, as west- southwest flow 10-15 kt continues. A few storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 34 kt and locally higher seas. Outside of storms, seas remain 2-3 ft. Boating conditions will be favorable outside of lightning storms. Offshore flow is forecast with winds backing southeast into the afternoon around 10-12 kt Friday. Onshore winds develop into the weekend, along with the daily afternoon sea breeze. Scattered showers and lighting storms capable of gusty winds and occasional to frequent lighting strikes are forecast. Seas are expected to build up to 2-4 ft well offshore by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect seas of 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 91 75 93 / 30 50 20 50 MCO 78 89 76 92 / 20 60 30 70 MLB 76 90 74 91 / 30 70 40 60 VRB 76 90 74 91 / 30 70 40 50 LEE 79 90 77 94 / 30 50 20 60 SFB 78 90 76 94 / 30 60 20 60 ORL 79 90 76 93 / 20 60 30 70 FPR 76 89 74 91 / 40 70 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Kelly