407
FXUS62 KMLB 131141
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
741 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue outside of convection. The
east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop today, with some
showers possible along the Treasure Coast terminals after 15Z.
VCTS will be possible along the coastal terminals after 17Z along
the sea breeze as it moves inland. A sea breeze collision later
this afternoon will serve as the primary driver for convective
development across the interior after 18Z, with TEMPOs for MVFR
VIS/CIG due to TSRA added in with this package between 20-23Z.
Activity is forecast to diminish after 03Z, with winds becoming
light and variable to calm overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Above-normal temperatures are forecast today and into next
  week, with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each afternoon. Those
  planning to be outdoors should take precautions to prevent heat-
  related illness.

- Typical rainy-season weather pattern continues through next
  week, with the highest potential for showers and storms
  occurring west of Interstate 95.


Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
build westward towards the eastern US coastline and across the
Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will become south-southeast around
10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the
afternoon and move inland, backing the winds more onshore. Forecast
soundings show the drier air that was present yesterday will subside
slightly today, with the profile becoming more moist this afternoon
along with PW values ranging from 2.0-2.3". This will support
scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms forming
this afternoon and early evening as the sea breeze forms and pushes
inland. The highest coverage of storms (PoP 60-70 percent) will
occur across the interior, especially across the western interior,
where collisions between sea breezes and outflow boundaries are
forecast to occur. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall.

Warming trend will continue today, with afternoon highs in the low
to mid 90s. These warm temperatures coupled with higher humidity
will produce peak heat indices of 105-107 degrees today. Be sure to
plan ahead today and stay cool and hydrated!  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to
build westward across Florida and the Deep south. Locally, south to
southeast winds will persist, with  wind speeds generally around 10
mph or less. Similar to Saturday, the east coast sea breeze is
forecast to form once again and push inland, backing the winds more
onshore. Forecast soundings show a fairly moist profile, with PW
values ranging from 1.8-2.2". This will continue to support
scattered showers and lightning storms forming in the afternoon and
evening. Highest rain chances (PoP 60-70 percent) will once again
occur west of I-95 across the interior, especially the far western
interior, due to forecast boundary collisions occurring there.

Warming trend Continues on Sunday, so be sure to keep cool and
hydrated! Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, under
partly sunny skies. These warm temperatures coupled with higher
humidity will result in peak heat indices ranging between 105-108
degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Friday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to build westward into the GOMEX and across the Deep south
into mid-week. An upper level trough will dig down across the Deep
South into Friday, causing the ridge axis over FL to shift slightly
eastward. Locally, southeasterly flow will persist, with speeds
around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
each afternoon, backing the winds onshore and increasing the winds
to 10-15 mph. Scattered showers and lightning storms expected each
afternoon and early evening. The highest coverage of showers and
storms through late week will focus across the interior, as well as
along and north of the I-4 corridor, where boundary collisions
between sea breezes and outflows are expected.

Temperatures will continue the warming trend into mid-week, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures
coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices between
105-108 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
build over the local waters today, causing the winds to become south-
southeast, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form and push inland this afternoon,
increasing winds to 10-15 KT. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Scattered showers
and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, some
storms could produce wind guests in excess of 34 KT and locally
higher seas.

Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions outside of
convection expected through mid-week. South to southeast winds will
persist through the time period, with speeds generally around 10 KT.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, which
will back the winds more east-southeast and increase the winds to 10-
15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on Sunday and Monday. Scattered
showers and lightning storms will be possible each afternoon and
into early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  93  76 /  50  30  50  30
MCO  94  77  95  77 /  70  20  70  20
MLB  91  77  91  77 /  40  30  40  20
VRB  91  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
LEE  94  79  94  78 /  70  20  70  30
SFB  95  77  94  77 /  70  20  70  20
ORL  95  78  95  78 /  70  20  70  20
FPR  91  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen