612
FXUS62 KMLB 131823
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
223 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...Above-normal temperatures remain forecast into next week, with a
Moderate to Major HeatRisk each afternoon. Those planning to be
outdoors should take precautions to prevent heat-related illness...

...Typical rainy-season weather pattern continues through next week,
with the highest potential for showers and storms west of Interstate
95...

Current-Tonight...Hot and humid with partly sunny skies this
afternoon. Highs expected to top out in the L-M90s with peak Heat
Indices in the 103-107 range, remaining just below Heat Advisory
criteria. Expect an increase in convective coverage and intensity
thru the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. This the
result of surface heating, and ample moisture with sea breeze and
storm outflow interactions. All of this will promote SCT-NMRS
showers/lightning storms across the central/eastern FL peninsula.
Movement is forecast slow to the north, but expect some erratic
movement with larger boundary collisions. Primary storm threats
continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to around
40 mph locally, and torrential downpours leading to minor and
nuisance flooding - esp for areas that receive multiple rounds of
showers and storms. Activity will diminish thru mid- late evening
with clouds thinning overnight. Winds will fall to light/variable
to calm. Overnight lows in the 70s.

Sunday...High pressure ridging continues across the area at the
surface and aloft. A little cooler aloft with H500 temps around -7C.
PWAT values remain in excess of 2 inches nearly areawide. Light and
variable morning winds will back SERLY behind sea breeze formation
and march inland during the afternoon. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will be forecast during the afternoon and early
evening, possibly becoming numerous in coverage over the interior
late in the day. Convection driven by surface heating, deep
moisture, and boundary collisions. Continued hot and humid with
highs in the L-M90s, under partly sunny skies. Peak Heat Indices 103-
108F, with the mid shift deciding whether a Heat Advisory is
necessary or not for a portion of the coverage warning area.
Overnight lows continue well into the 70s.

Monday-Friday...Previous...High pressure across the western Atlantic
will continue to build westward into the GOMEX and across the Deep
South into mid-week. An upper level trough will dig across the Deep
South into Friday, causing the ridge axis over FL to shift slightly
eastward. Locally, southeasterly flow will persist, with speeds
around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
each afternoon, backing the winds onshore and increasing the winds
to 10-15 mph. Scattered showers and lightning storms expected each
afternoon and early evening. The highest coverage of showers and
storms through late week will focus across the interior, as well as
along and north of the I-4 corridor, where boundary collisions
between sea breezes and outflows will be most numerous.

Temperatures will continue the warming trend into mid-week, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures
coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices between
105-108 degrees. Will monitor for Heat Advisory potential. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Afternoon-Tonight...Weak high pressure ridging exists across the
local waters. SSW/S winds Cape northward and S/SE southward with
speeds 6-11 kts on average. Seas 2-3 ft but locally higher invof SCT
lightning storms.

Sunday-Wednesday...Previous...Favorable boating conditions outside
of convection expected through mid-week. South to southeast winds
will persist through the time period, with speeds generally around
10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon,
which will back the winds more east-southeast and increase the winds
to 10-15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on Sunday and Monday.
Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each
afternoon and into early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Mainly VFR conditions outside of TSRA/SHRA this afternoon and
evening, then VFR prevailing overnight through Sunday morning
before doing doing it all over again Sunday afternoon. Convection
already getting started this afternoon, in particular north of
the I-4 corridor where more clear skies have allowed better
heating, so added VCSH to the inland TAFs at the start of the 18Z
package. A not particularly impressive ECSB has slowly pushed west
of I-95 and will continue to drag inland, colliding with the WCSB
INVOF the inland terminals around 21Z-22Z. No changes to timing
of TEMPOs for inland terminals as the bulk of TSRA is expected
with the sea breeze collision, but can`t rule out an early storm
at one or two of the terminals. Coastal terminals carry VCTS for
potential of outflow pushing a storm back towards the coast.
TSRA/SHRA forecast to clear by 03Z. Went with earliest reasonable
start of TSRA/SHRA in the TAFs for Sunday afternoon, around 17Z
along the coast and KLEE, and 18Z at the rest of the inland
terminals. Winds generally 10 kts or less, with frequent direction
changes due to a weak pressure gradient and multiple outflow
boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  77  93 /  20  50  20  50
MCO  76  94  77  95 /  30  70  20  70
MLB  77  91  77  90 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  76  92  77  92 /  40  40  10  40
LEE  77  94  78  95 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  76  94  77  95 /  30  70  20  70
ORL  77  94  77  95 /  40  70  20  70
FPR  76  92  77  91 /  40  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley