430
FXUS62 KMLB 160851
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
451 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Another day of showers and storms, with the highest coverage
  across the interior. Storms will be capable of producing
  lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Localized
  flooding will be possible.

- Heat remains a concern through the extended period due to above
  normal temperatures, with peak heat indices ranging from 102 to
  110 over the next several days.

- Increasing moisture late this week and into the weekend across
  the peninsula will keep coverage of showers and storms high across
  the interior.

Today-Tonight...The persistent weather pattern continues across
east central Florida. An area of high pressure across the western
Atlantic will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying draped
across central Florida. The east coast sea breeze will develop
this afternoon and push inland, with an eventual collision across
the interior leading to increasing shower and storm coverage.
Similar to yesterday, the highest coverage is forecast near the
I-4 corridor (~60 to 70 percent). Storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph,
and heavy downpours. Weaker steering flow will result in slow and
potentially erratic moving storms, which could lead to quick
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in spots. This could produce some
localized flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas. Activity will likely diminish after 8 PM, with any
lingering showers diminishing before midnight.

Heat continues to be a concern across east central Florida, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices
reaching 100 to 107. HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether
there is an elevated risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to
Major across east central Florida today. In summary, everyone
should continue to take action to prevent heat-related illness,
including taking frequent breaks in the shade or in an air
conditioned building if spending extended periods of time outdoors
as well as remaining well hydrated. Warm and muggy conditions
will persist into the overnight hours, with lows only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday...A band of drier air is forecast to drift across east
central Florida on Wednesday, with an area of high pressure
remaining in place across the western Atlantic. This drier air is
expected to limit shower and storm development as a result,
particularly across areas south of the Orlando metro and Cape
Canaveral. There continues to be model discrepancy in just how
dried out these areas will get, so still kept in a 20 to 30
percent chance of showers and storms across the southernmost areas
of the forecast area, with higher chances forecast near and north
of the I-4 corridor where the greatest moisture is expected. The
main mechanism behind shower and storm development will be the
east coast sea breeze and its progression inland, with a collision
near the I-4 corridor leading to increasing development later in
the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Activity across the interior will
diminish into the overnight hours.

Temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s will combine with
humidity to produce peak heat indices in the 100 to 107 range,
though slightly lower dewpoints due to the drier air may help to
reduce heat indices slightly. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will
remain in place across east central Florida, so continued caution
will be needed if spending extended periods of times outdoors.
Overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure across the western Atlantic will
remain in place and be the main influence across the Florida
peninsula. Moisture is forecast to recover across east central
Florida, leading to increasing rain and storm chances each
afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, with an
eventual collision across the interior producing the highest
coverage. This pattern is expected to continue late this week into
early next week. Activity will diminish into the overnight hours
across the peninsula, with lingering showers and storms remaining
possible across the local waters each night.

Heat will remain a concern, with temperatures appearing to peak on
Thursday and Friday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s and
dropping back into the low to mid 90s this weekend through
Monday. These temperatures will combine with humidity to produce
peak heat indices in the 102 to 110 range. Additionally, HeatRisk
is expected to become Extreme across portions of Lake, Orange, and
Seminole counties Thursday through Saturday, with Moderate to
Major impacts elsewhere and on Sunday and Monday. This means extra
caution will need to be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses,
and time outside will potentially need to be limited. Little
relief will be granted during the overnight hours, with conditions
remaining warm and muggy thanks to lows only dropping into the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure
remains in place across the western Atlantic. Winds will remain
between 5 to 10 knots out of the south, becoming slightly
stronger at 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast as the sea breeze
develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
the local waters through the period, primarily during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Similar setup tomorrow as drier air south of KMLB and faster
inland movement of the east coast sea breeze keeping rain chances
very limited from KVRB-KSUA. Isolated showers and storms may
develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea breeze forms in the
early afternoon, but greatest convective coverage will be across
inland TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea breeze moves inland and
where boundary interactions are more likely. Maintained VCTS at
MLB and added TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA at
DAB/TIX/MCO/SFB/LEE from 20Z-23Z. Winds becoming S to SE 5-6 knots
after sunrise backing E/SE around 10 knots behind the sea breeze
aft 16Z at coastal terminals. Diurnal convection should diminish
by 02-03Z followed by a quiet/VFR overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  76 /  60  30  40  10
MCO  94  76  95  77 /  70  30  40  10
MLB  90  76  91  78 /  40  20  20  10
VRB  92  75  92  76 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  77  94  78 /  70  30  60  10
SFB  94  76  95  77 /  70  30  40  10
ORL  94  77  95  78 /  70  30  40  10
FPR  92  74  92  76 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly