084
FXUS63 KMKX 140859
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
359 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and storms are expected to move in from
  western Wisconsin through daybreak. Heavy downpours are the
  biggest concern in this activity, particularly northwest of
  Madison where multiple rounds of storms occurred last evening.
  An isolated stronger storm with gusty winds and hail can`t be
  completely ruled out.

- More showers and storms are possible this afternoon. Storms
  could produce heavy downpours, in addition to damaging winds
  and large hail.

- A final round of showers and storms is expected Monday
  afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Additional
  severe weather is possible in these storms.

- Hot and humid conditions continue today and Monday. A heat advisory
  remains in effect this afternoon across southeastern
  Wisconsin.

- Drier, quieter weather conditions return behind a departing
  cold front by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 357 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Today Through Monday Night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Last evening`s showers and storms have
shifted southeast of the area early this morning. Fed by warm/moist
advection in the 925-850 mb layer, an additional area of shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently approaching the region from
western Wisconsin. This activity is anticipated to hold together
through daybreak, tracking across at least the western half of the
area at mostly sub-severe levels. A lull in precipitation is
expected from late morning through early afternoon, allowing warm
and humid conditions to become established across the region.
Affiliated with an ongoing MCS over South Dakota, an MCV is forecast
to track across southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Combined with a
recovering afternoon air mass, as well as any residual outflow from
early morning showers & storms, the feature will encourage
additional shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon
and evening. Heavy downpours, as well as gusty winds and large hail,
will be possible in these storms. A cold front remains on track to
cross the state Monday evening and night, supporting a final round
of showers and thunderstorms. Some of said storms could also be
strong to severe.

Rest Of Tonight: Anticipate that convection currently closing in
from the northwest will hold together through the CWA given
continued southwesterly influx of warm/moist air within the 925-850
millibar layer and sufficient effective shear. A slow, but steady
downward trend in severity has been noted over the last several
hours, and is expected to continue through daybreak as storms run
into the western edge of a worked over air mass across southern
Wisconsin. Severe weather concerns are thus overall low in these
storms, though an isolated stronger core capable of large hail and
gusty winds can`t be entirely ruled out, particularly west of I-39
where low level 925-850 mb WAA is concentrated. Moderate to heavy
downpours will the bigger concern given the still elevated
precipitable water values in place across the region, in addition to
the possible overlap of storms with locations northwest of Madison
that experienced multiple rounds of storms last evening. Some
consideration was given to a localized Flood Watch through late
morning given this potential, but ultimately held off given the
overall weakening trend & more western track of the complex. Will
continue to monitor trends closely through daybreak. Remember to
turn around, don`t drown if encountering flooded roadways in
the Wisconsin River Valley this morning.

This Afternoon & Evening: Expect that the early morning batch of
showers and storms will push southeast of the region by late
morning, giving way to warm and muggy conditions following the lunch
hour. Have maintained the Heat Advisory for southeastern Wisconsin
as-is, with the headline remaining in effect between 2-7 PM. Be sure
to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored & loose-fitting
clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade if planning to be
outdoors this afternoon. Anticipate additional shower and storm
development by late afternoon within the aforementioned warm &
muggy air mass, with an MCV affiliated with ongoing storms in
South Dakota being the key forcing mechanism. Said storms will
develop within an air mass characterized by strong instability
(2000 to locally 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE), which will be supportive
for at least some large hail potential in initially-developing
cells. Marginal effective shear in the 15-25 knot range, as well
as high DCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, should
translate to a quick transition to loosely-organized clusters,
with damaging winds becoming the main concern. All storms will
be capable of producing heavy downpours given 1.5-1.9"
precipitable water values pooling in the near-storm environment.
Stay weather aware if planning to be outdoors late this
afternoon & evening, and have multiple ways of receiving warning
information.

Monday & Monday Night: Hot and humid conditions will continue,
though heat indices will be a touch lower compared to today. A final
round of showers and storms is expected during the afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves into the region. Said storms will be
developing within a continued very unstable environment, with
greater amounts of shear in place relative to today. Severe weather
will thus remain a concern in tomorrow afternoon`s storms. Trends
will be monitored closely over the coming forecast cycles.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 357 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tuesday through Saturday:

Thunderstorms along the front may linger over far southeast WI into
Tuesday morning, depending on how quickly the front moves through.
Morning stratus in the southeast will give way to some diurnal
cumulus clouds. Look for clouds to mix out through the day due to
drier air working into the region. Highs Tuesday will feel much
cooler with highs in the lower 80s and dewpoints lowering into the
lower 60s through the day. Tuesday night lows should actually drop
into the upper 50s for areas toward central WI.

One more lobe of vorticity is expected to roll across central WI
during the day Wednesday. This may allow for a few showers with the
better chance in central WI, but warm and dry air aloft will prevent
thunderstorms in southern WI. High pressure will spread overhead on
Thursday and linger through at least Friday. The air mass is
expected to be cooler and drier and much more comfortable, with
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 357 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Yesterday evening`s showers and storms have vacated to the southeast
of the region, with additional shower and storm activity moving into
southern Wisconsin from the northwest. Expect that this activity
will hold together through daybreak, bringing potential impacts to
area terminals. A break in precip is anticipated through late
morning and early afternoon, with additional scattered development
anticipated this afternoon. Will continue to refine timing of
convection as trends warrant over the coming forecast cycles.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 357 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Winds shift southwesterly today as low pressure of 998 mb develops
in western Ontario and lifts northeastward. A cold front will push
southward through Lake Michigan from this low overnight Monday into
early Tuesday morning, shifting winds to northwesterly. Breezy
conditions linger into Tuesday evening before high pressure becomes
established.

Scattered showers and storms are possible through the first half of
this morning, with additional periods of showers and storms expected
from this afternoon through Monday evening. Some storms could be
severe with gusty winds and large hail, particularly this afternoon
and once again on Monday.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...2 PM
     Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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