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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
965 FXUS63 KMKX 091941 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances to chances (~20-30%) for showers/storms for southern WI, mainly inland from Lake Michigan will continue into this evening. - The remnants of Beryl will bring light to moderate rain over far southeastern WI overnight into tomorrow morning. - Additional storms chances (~30%) tomorrow afternoon with additional chances into the weekend. - Increasing potential for above normal temperatures heading into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: A few very isolated showers and storms have formed this afternoon, and a few more still are still expected out ahead of post- tropical Cyclone Beryl mainly inland from Lake Michigan into this evening. Some of this activity could focus along the lake breeze this afternoon. Overnight, Beryl will approach from the south and travel just north enough to win out over dry air and bring rain to far southeastern WI, with likely PoPs (~65%) over Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties between Midnight and 9am on Wednesday. Rain should exit east during the mid to late morning hours. Clouds may linger along the lakeshore, but inland, clouds are anticipated to break in the early afternoon, and daytime heating will steepen lapse rates. Scattered showers and storms may then occur from the mid evening into the evening hours, with activity waning around sunset. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: The 500mb wave in association with post-tropical cyclone Beryl will begin to cut off from the main flow early Thursday morning north of Lake Huron and should remain fairly stationary, leaving a reservoir of colder air and lower heights aloft through Thursday. While relative surface high pressure will be over the region, the cold air aloft with summertime solar insolation should lead to the steepening of lapse rates and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE should be realized in the afternoon. A weak trough angled from Michigan to Minnesota may provide a weak trigger and a few scattered pop-up showers/storms may result with some small hail and gusty winds, but the coverage and longevity of the activity should be limited by weak shear. Activity will be diurnally driven, and should wane around sunset. A similar set-up looks possible Friday, with scattered shower and storm activity perhaps a bit further south, focusing around the WI/IL border as the sfc trough from Thursday is expected to continue southward. Temperatures both days will be in the low 80s. The cutoff low will push east for Saturday and allow upper level flow to progress east. Long range models show a shortwave trough passing Saturday, with the NBM painting 30 to 40% PoPs over the region during the afternoon hours into the evening. Sunday, upper level ridging from the Plains should lean eastward into the Upper Midwest and high temperatures will increase into the upper 80s to near 90, with dewpoints in the low 70s. Heading into the end of the extended period, heat looks like it will linger, with the potential for next week to be active weatherwise, as well be on the northeast edge of a plains ridge where multiple waves will propagate southeastward. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A few isolated pop up showers will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise mainly VFR with some pockets of high MVFR clouds should linger through this afternoon amid east northeast winds. VFR ceilings may linger overnight as Beryl approaches, with a few brief pockets of MVFR over KUES, KMKE, and KENW near daybreak tomorrow. Vis drops may only occur at KMKE and KENW, where light to moderate rain may occur between 09z and 15z Wednesday. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The post tropical cylcone Beryl will slide southeast of Lake Michigan tonight and move toward the western end of Lake Erie by Wednesday afternoon. As the low passes, northeast winds will become northerly overnight and increase, with the strongest gusts over the southern end of Lake Michigan. Some gusts may approach gale force toward dawn on Wednesday and into the early afternoon. Winds will then ease overnight Wednesday into Thursday as Beryl exits east and winds should come around to northwesterly. Winds will grow light and variable Thursday night. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee