065
FXUS63 KMKX 100235 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
935 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will bring light to moderate rain over
  far southeastern WI overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Storm chances (~30%) tomorrow afternoon with additional
  chances into the weekend.

- Increasing potential for above normal temperatures heading
  into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 935 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

We had a small cluster of weak thunderstorms loosely tied to
the lake breeze track from Waukesha to Elkhorn to Beloit this
evening. A couple other showers developed southwest of Madison
which were supported by potential vorticity advection and upper
divergence. Rain associated with the remnants of tropical
cyclone Beryl is starting to spread into southeast WI late this
evening. Thunder is not expected with the steadier rain and
moist adiabatic lapse rates, but showers and a storm are
possible further inland due to steeper mid level lapse rates
overnight.

Shower chances will linger near the lakeshore through tomorrow
morning. Then there is a general chance of diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon again. These would be random
and feed from their own outflows due to modest instability and
low shear.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

A few very isolated showers and storms have formed this
afternoon, and a few more still are still expected out ahead of
post- tropical Cyclone Beryl mainly inland from Lake Michigan
into this evening. Some of this activity could focus along the
lake breeze this afternoon.

Overnight, Beryl will approach from the south and travel just north
enough to win out over dry air and bring rain to far southeastern
WI, with likely PoPs (~65%) over Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha
Counties between Midnight and 9am on Wednesday. Rain should exit
east during the mid to late morning hours. Clouds may linger
along the lakeshore, but inland, clouds are anticipated to break
in the early afternoon, and daytime heating will steepen lapse
rates. Scattered showers and storms may then occur from the mid
evening into the evening hours, with activity waning around
sunset.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

The 500mb wave in association with post-tropical cyclone Beryl will
begin to cut off from the main flow early Thursday morning north of
Lake Huron and should remain fairly stationary, leaving a reservoir
of colder air and lower heights aloft through Thursday. While
relative surface high pressure will be over the region, the cold air
aloft with summertime solar insolation should lead to the steepening
of lapse rates and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE should be realized in
the afternoon. A weak trough angled from Michigan to Minnesota may
provide a weak trigger and a few scattered pop-up showers/storms may
result with some small hail and gusty winds, but the coverage and
longevity of the activity should be limited by weak shear. Activity
will be diurnally driven, and should wane around sunset.

A similar set-up looks possible Friday, with scattered shower and
storm activity perhaps a bit further south, focusing around the
WI/IL border as the sfc trough from Thursday is expected to continue
southward. Temperatures both days will be in the low 80s.

The cutoff low will push east for Saturday and allow upper level
flow to progress east. Long range models show a shortwave trough
passing Saturday, with the NBM painting 30 to 40% PoPs over the
region during the afternoon hours into the evening. Sunday, upper
level ridging from the Plains should lean eastward into the Upper
Midwest and high temperatures will increase into the upper 80s to
near 90, with dewpoints in the low 70s. Heading into the end of the
extended period, heat looks like it will linger, with the potential
for next week to be active weatherwise, as well be on the northeast
edge of a plains ridge where multiple waves will propagate
southeastward.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 935 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR ceilings are expected overnight as Beryl approaches, with a
few brief pockets of MVFR over KUES, KMKE, and KENW near
daybreak tomorrow. Vis drops may only occur at KENW, where
moderate rain may occur between 09z and 15z Wednesday. There is
a chance for thunderstorms along the lake breeze and inland
Wednesday afternoon. These would be weak, widely scattered and
short- lived.

CMiller/Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The post tropical cyclone Beryl will slide southeast of Lake
Michigan tonight and move toward the western end of Lake Erie by
Wednesday afternoon. As the low passes, northeast winds will
become northerly overnight and increase, with the strongest
gusts over the southern end of Lake Michigan. Some gusts may
approach gale force toward dawn on Wednesday and into the early
afternoon. Winds will then ease overnight Wednesday into
Thursday as Beryl exits east and winds should come around to
northwesterly. Winds will grow light and variable Thursday
night.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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