503
FXUS63 KMKX 061445 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today with just an outside chance for a shower or
  storm.

- Good chance (60-80%) for rain and thunderstorms very late
  tonight and on Sunday.

- Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and
  thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

There is still an area of low stratus lingering over
southwestern parts of the forecast area, which should gradually
scatter out by early this afternoon.

Otherwise, scattered diunral cumulus clouds should continue to
develop into this afternoon. There remains a small chance of a
shower or storm this afternoon, as very weak instability
develops with a passing vorticity maximum and perhaps helped by
the lake breeze boundary. Most of the area will remain dry this
afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 70s inland, with middle
70s lakeside, as winds shift onshore.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today through Sunday:

Patchy fog and stratus can be expected early this morning, with
clouds scattering out by the mid morning hours. Rising heights
aloft will support a mostly dry forecast today, though there
will be an outside chance (15-20%) for a shower or perhaps
brief thunderstorm over far southern and south central Wisconsin
this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with a
lake breeze likely by early afternoon.

A trough digging across the central Plains will support
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening over
portions of Iowa and Nebraska, with these storms moving eastward
into the forecast area late tonight and Sunday morning. Current
timing brings this activity into the far west around or a little
after daybreak Sunday, with a disorganized complex/multiple
clusters of convection lifting east-northeastward through the
area through the day, with additional rounds of convection
developing to the west Sunday evening and night, near a weak
frontal boundary. Meager lapse rates will limit overall
instability and the severe threat, though enough shear may be
present for a few briefly strong storms. Widespread severe
weather is not expected.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

A broad area of troughing over the Great Lakes and central US,
with multiple embedded shortwaves, will support daily chances
for rain and thunderstorms through at least mid week. Much of
this activity will be diurnally driven, with peak coverage
during the afternoon and early evening hours. An occasional
strong storm is possible during this stretch, but there does not
appear to be a good chance for widespread or organized severe
weather. Highs Monday through Thursday will be in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with lows in the 60s.

There are indications that toward the end of the week, a
building ridge may develop over the central US, which would
favor lower precip chances and increased temperatures to end the
workweek and into next weekend.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

There is still an area of low stratus lingering over the Madison
and Janesville terminals and to the west and southwest of there.
Ceilings were in the 300 to 1000 foot AGL range. These ceilings
should gradually scatter out by early this afternoon.

Otherwise, scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should continue to
develop into this afternoon. There remains a small chance of a
shower or storm this afternoon, though most of the area will
remain dry. Light northwest winds are expected, with a southeast
lake breeze developing this afternoon for terminals near Lake
Michigan.

Light south winds tonight will become south to southwest on
Sunday and increase, with a southeast lake breeze near Lake
Michigan in the afternoon.

An area of showers and some thunderstorms should move northeast
into the area around or after 12Z Sunday, gradually weakening
as they move through. More scattered showers or storms may
develop Sunday afternoon and night. May see some reduced
visibility and ceilings in any showers or storms.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Light and variable winds are expected today, before they turn
southerly tonight. Southerly flow will then persist across the
lake into mid week, though wind speeds will remain fairly light
given a weak and disorganized pressure gradient. Several rounds
of rain and thunderstorms are expected during this time.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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