Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
364 FXUS63 KMKX 051514 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1014 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and scattered storms to develop this afternoon and linger into the evening. - Lower rain chance Saturday (15-20%), before higher rain chances (40-60%) return for Sunday. - Continued muggy with temperatures around average into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1014 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The upper low over west central WI this morning will track east then newd to near nrn Lake MI by this evening, while the weak sfc low over central WI gradually moves across central Lake MI through the afternoon. The upper trough axis of the upper low will swing ewd across srn WI this afternoon. The deeper low level moisture and expected MLCAPE of 500-800 J/KG will remain focused over central WI along the w-e sfc trough. Thus will maintain likely showers (60-70 percent chances) and scattered storms mainly north of Madison and Milwaukee with 30-40 percent chances toward the IL border. Scattered showers and isold storms are then expected to linger into the early evening before ending. The w-e sfc trough will then shift swd as a weak cold front this evening, but stratus clouds will likely continue or return given the continued moist conditions in the low levels. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today through Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the area early this morning, ahead of a slow moving shortwave trough and associated weak cold front. Much of this activity will move east of the area shortly after sunrise, before additional showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. No severe weather is expected this afternoon, but locally heavy rain will remain a threat, with PWATs approaching 1.5 inches and slow storm motions. Thunderstorm coverage should decrease fairly quickly this evening, owning to both a loss of daytime heating and weak subsidence and dry air advection as the mid level wave moves east. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Another, weaker shortwave will move into the region for Saturday. Weak lift and no organized surface features will limit rain chances. Most locations will remain dry, with just a 15-20 percent chance for showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: The overall pattern that we`ve been in for a few days, with weak but prolific shortwave energy within broad troughing over the central Plains and Great Lakes, will continue Sunday into at least mid week. Daily precip chances will range from about 40-60 percent, generally maximized during the afternoon hours, with slow storm motions and a moist airmass contributing to a localized heavy rain threat. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s to near 80, with lows in the 60s. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 1014 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MVFR Cigs will continue today but periods of Cigs above MVFR around 3.5-4.0 kft will be possible especially over far srn WI. Showers will continue to remain likely for this afternoon with scattered storms as well. There is uncertainty on the amount of stratus clouds and MVFR Cigs for tnt into Sat AM but believe chances are fairly high at least over ern WI. Sct-bkn035 cumulus then expected for Sat afternoon. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 South to southeast winds are expected over the southern half of Lake Michigan today, with east to northeast winds over the north half as low pressure moves across central WI and into Lower Michigan by this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly tonight into Saturday morning as the low moves across Lake Huron and southern Ontario. Winds return to a southerly direction Sunday into the early to middle portion of the week. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee