Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
615 FXUS63 KMKX 052000 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous rain showers and scattered storms this afternoon then lingering into the evening. - Showers likely (60-70 percent chances) with chances for storms on Sunday and again on Monday. - Continued humid with temperatures near normal into next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: A w-e line of showers and sct storms with heavy rain is ongoing along the w-e sfc trough and at the base of the 500 mb upper wave toward central WI. An outflow boundary is progressing swd and should reach the Madison area around 21Z and the MKE area btwn 2130-2200Z. The outflow should continue to initiate new shower and storm development given an uncapped airmass with sfc based CAPE of 1000-1300 J/KG. Cannot rule out isold urban and small stream flooding. The weak cold front will then follow with nwly sfc winds expected tnt-Sat AM. Given the moist sfc conditions and low level ATM, stratus clouds may re-develop tnt and continue into Sat AM. A weak sfc ridge will shift ewd across srn WI Sat afternoon but a weak 500 MB vorticity maximum will also pass. In addition a lake breeze will also form. Thus kept the slight chances (20 percent) for showers and storms in the afternoon with a marginally unstable airmass expected. Some clearing of skies will then occur Sat evening but clouds will increase again late. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Sunday through Friday: A series of shortwave troughs will support mean upper troughing over the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes for next week. Thus chances for showers and storms will be forecast each day with likely chances (60-70 percent) for Sunday and again Monday. Temps during the extended will be near normal with above normal relative humidity. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Local MVFR Cigs this afternoon and evening especially after periods of heavy rain. Otherwise Cigs will be 3.5-4.0 kft during said period. There is then uncertainty on the amount of stratus cloud re-development and MVFR Cigs for tnt into Sat AM, but believe chances are fairly high at least over ern WI. Sct- bkn035 cumulus then expected for Sat afternoon. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Low pressure around 29.7 inches over central Lake Michigan will move into lower Michigan later this afternoon and to the lower Great Lakes late tonight. Light to modest southwest winds are expected over the southern half of Lake Michigan becoming westerly late in the afternoon, while modest northeast winds continue over the northern half. Winds will then turn north northwesterly across the entire lake this evening, lasting through Saturday morning, as the low moves across Lake Huron and southern Ontario. Winds return to a southerly direction Sunday into the early to middle portion of the week. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee